Bitcoin Surges Toward $90K as Kevin Warsh’s Fed Confirmation Odds Hit 97%: Key Factors Driving the Rally

Bitcoin is positioning itself for a decisive push toward the $90,000 mark as investors focus on a potential leadership change at the U.S. Federal Reserve, according to analysts.

Iggy Ioppe, former Credit Suisse banker and now Chief Investment Officer at tokenization platform Theo, emphasized the critical nature of a smooth transition to Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair.

"Markets don't like uncertainty. In the near term, it's a hawkish hold."

Ioppe’s remarks follow the U.S. Department of Justice’s decision on Friday to drop its criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This move removes a significant obstacle to the Senate confirming Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee, as the central bank’s next leader.

Polymarket bettors have dramatically increased Warsh’s confirmation odds, assigning him a 97% chance of being confirmed by May 15—a sharp rise from just 28% on Thursday.

Bitcoin investors have mirrored this optimism. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has surged 18% over the past month, driven by renewed institutional demand and $2.5 billion in ETF inflows in April, according to DefiLlama data. This represents a 90% increase from March’s inflows.

Analysts previously told DL News that if favorable Fed policies align with the passage of the Clarity Act, Bitcoin could reach $100,000.

The Road to Warsh’s Confirmation

The confirmation process for Warsh faced significant delays due to the DOJ’s investigation into Powell. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina had placed an effective hold on the nomination until the probe concluded. With that obstacle now removed, Warsh’s path to confirmation appears clear.

Powell’s term as Fed Chair officially ends in mid-May. His tenure has been marked by frequent clashes with Trump, who has repeatedly criticized the Fed for not cutting interest rates swiftly enough. These tensions intensified as geopolitical events, including the U.S.-Israel conflict, drove up energy prices and complicated inflation forecasts.

Warsh’s confirmation hearing last week highlighted the political stakes surrounding his potential appointment. Lawmakers pressed him on his independence from the White House and his stance on interest rate policy. Warsh assured senators that Trump never asked him to predetermine or commit to specific rate decisions.

He also reaffirmed that controlling inflation remains a top priority and suggested reviewing how the Fed measures price pressures and communicates its policies to the public. While he did not commit to immediate rate cuts, he framed his approach as disciplined and data-driven.

Senator Elizabeth Warren accused the administration of attempting to install a compliant Fed Chair, warning against political interference in monetary policy. These exchanges underscore how the leadership of the central bank has become a contentious issue in the broader political landscape ahead of the November midterm elections.

Crypto Market Movements

As of the latest data:

• Bitcoin is down 0.5% over the past 24 hours, trading at $77,638.
• Ethereum is down 0.7% over the past few hours, valued at $2,316.

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Lance Datskoluo is DL News’ Europe-based markets correspondent. Got a tip? Email him at [email protected].