Euphoria Season 3 Death Predictions: Nate Jacobs and Rue Bennett Top Polymarket Bets

Prediction markets like Polymarket allow users to wager on virtually any outcome, but some believe certain bettors may have an unfair advantage. A recent Polymarket event contract titled “Who will die in Euphoria: Season 3?” has users speculating on the fates of characters in creator Sam Levinson’s HBO series, which follows the chaotic lives of young adults.

The market, set to resolve by May 31—the same day as the season finale—requires the specified character to die on-screen or have their death explicitly stated for “yes” bets to win. Nate Jacobs (played by Jacob Elordi) and Rue Bennett (played by Zendaya) are currently ranked as the most likely to die, with odds of 82% and 61%, respectively.

While betting on a TV show’s plot twists may seem like harmless fun, some users have raised concerns about potential insider trading. One commenter asked,

“Insider trading?”

“I’m one of the actors but won’t tell you which one.”

Proving insider manipulation is difficult, but the suspicion is understandable. Writers, staffers, or others with access to privileged information could stand to profit significantly by betting on character deaths. A review of the top “yes” bettors shows they hold positions exclusively in Euphoria-related markets, while those betting “no” have more diverse portfolios.

Polymarket has declined to comment on the Euphoria bets but has previously stated it takes a strong stance against insider trading. In April, the platform referred a case to the U.S. Department of Justice involving a soldier who allegedly used classified military information to win over $400,000 on Polymarket by betting on Venezuela-related events, including the capture of Nicolás Maduro. Polymarket stated it cooperated fully with the investigation.

“Insider trading has no place on Polymarket,” the company posted on X.

Polymarket is not the only prediction market grappling with insider trading concerns. In April, Kalshi reported three cases of political insider trading, flagging two Democratic and one Republican primary candidate who were betting on issues tied to their campaigns. Despite safeguards—such as blocking politicians and athletes from betting on connected events—insider trading can still slip through the cracks.