ICE Arrests of Cuban Immigrants Surge Under Trump—Threatening GOP Florida Support

The Trump administration has dramatically increased the detention of Cuban immigrants while blocking their path to permanent residency, a shift that could reshape Republican electoral prospects in Florida ahead of the November election.

According to an analysis by the libertarian Cato Institute, cited by the Miami Herald, ICE arrests of Cuban nationals have risen by 463% since December 2024. Meanwhile, green card approvals for Cubans have dropped by 99.8%, effectively ending a decades-old program that once made it easy for Cubans to gain permanent residency in the U.S.

End of the Cuban Adjustment Act

For decades, Cubans in the U.S. could qualify for permanent residency and green cards under the Cuban Adjustment Act of 1966. The law allowed Cubans to apply for permanent residence just 366 days after entering the country.

However, in December 2024, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) paused all immigration and citizenship applications—including green cards—from 18 countries, including Cuba. This policy shift has left many Cuban immigrants vulnerable to detention and deportation.

Florida’s Cuban-American Community at Risk

As of 2021, there are 1.3 million Americans of Cuban origin living in the U.S., with 64% residing in Florida. The state has seen a sharp rise in immigration arrests, though these cases have received less national attention compared to high-profile federal actions in states like Minnesota.

Florida’s local law enforcement agencies have long-standing agreements with federal immigration authorities, contributing to the increase in detentions. These agreements have drawn criticism from immigrant rights groups, who argue they disproportionately target Cuban communities.

Republican Support in Florida at Stake

Cuban-American voters in Florida, particularly in the Miami-Dade area, have been a key Republican constituency. In the 2024 election, approximately 70% of Florida’s Cuban-American population voted for Trump.

However, the administration’s crackdown on Cuban immigration is beginning to shift attitudes within the community.

"The same Cubans who have been here for years don’t realize that Trump acts the same way as Fidel did," said Daimarys Hernández, a manicurist whose husband was awaiting deportation from the Krome Detention Center in Florida at the time. Hernández made the comment to El País in October.

Her remarks reflect growing frustration among long-standing Cuban-American residents, many of whom once saw Trump as a defender of their interests but now view his policies as increasingly authoritarian.

The surge in ICE arrests and the near-elimination of green card approvals for Cubans may further erode Republican support in a state that could decide the outcome of the 2025 election.