NL MVP Race: 8 Rising Stars Poised to Challenge Shohei Ohtani in 2026

Shohei Ohtani has claimed the past two National League MVP awards, and his unmatched two-way production as both a pitcher and hitter gives him a commanding lead in the 2026 race. According to FanDuel’s odds, Ohtani (-370) is the prohibitive favorite to secure a historic third straight MVP, despite a recent offensive slump.

Ohtani’s pitching remains elite, with a 10 strikeouts per nine innings and a sub-1.00 WHIP. However, his batting average has dipped to .454, and he’s gone hitless in four consecutive games for the first time in his career. This downturn could fuel voter fatigue among members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (BBWAA), potentially opening the door for other elite talents.

Eight Early Contenders Challenging Ohtani’s MVP Dominance

While Ohtani’s odds remain steep, several rising stars are positioned to capitalize on his struggles with a strong month of performance. Here are the top eight players with the best chances to dethrone the two-way superstar:

• Corbin Carroll (+1700) – Tied for sixth in NL MVP voting last season, Carroll is returning from a broken hamate bone and has already shown improved plate discipline and power, including a historic extra-base hit rate.
• Matt Olson (+1700) – Leading the league in WAR after April, Olson has crushed 11 home runs and driven in a league-high 31 runs while slashing .299/.380/.650.
• Elly De La Cruz (+2200) – At just 24 years old, De La Cruz is on pace for a potential 40/40 season, currently ranking near the top in WAR despite lingering quad issues from last year.
• Ronald Acuña Jr. (+2200) – The 2023 NL MVP, Acuña Jr. has delivered MVP-caliber numbers when healthy. His return from the IL will be critical for the Braves’ championship push.
• Juan Soto (+3000) – Finishing third in NL MVP voting last year, Soto is healthy again and could anchor the Mets’ lineup after ending a 12-game losing streak in his first game back.
• James Wood (+4000) – The 6’7” outfielder combines power and plate discipline, posting a 19.9% walk rate (leading the NL) while making highlight-reel defensive plays in right field.
• Drake Baldwin (+5000) – The 2025 Rookie of the Year, Baldwin is on track to surpass his 19 home runs from last season, positioning himself as Atlanta’s next breakout star.
• Jordan Walker (+6000) – Walker is improving his stolen base totals and has already exceeded last season’s production, adding another dynamic element to his game.

Can Anyone Stop Ohtani’s MVP Three-Peat?

Ohtani’s dual-threat dominance makes him the clear frontrunner, but the depth of this year’s field suggests a competitive race. Carroll, Olson, and De La Cruz have emerged as the early favorites among non-Ohtani candidates, each with the potential to surge if they sustain their production. Acuña Jr. and Soto, both former MVPs, could also regain form and challenge for the award if they stay healthy.

The NL MVP race is far from decided, and with Ohtani’s recent struggles, the door is open for a new star to rise. Will another player seize the opportunity, or will Ohtani defy the odds once again?