Leaked intelligence shared with The Washington Post indicates that Iran could endure Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz for three to four months without suffering severe economic consequences. This revelation contradicts Trump’s repeated assertions that Iran’s regime is on the brink of collapse and that its military capabilities have been entirely neutralized.

Additionally, new reports confirm that Iran has retained a far greater arsenal of missiles and drones than previously estimated. These developments mark some of Trump’s most significant strategic failures in the conflict, raising serious questions about his administration’s military and economic assessments.

The Wall Street Journal further reports that Trump’s advisers are increasingly alarmed by the political repercussions Republicans may face due to the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The two issues are closely linked: the prolonged conflict, now expected to last longer than anticipated, threatens to deepen the GOP’s political vulnerabilities in the lead-up to the midterm elections.

To discuss the implications of these revelations, we spoke with Tim Noah, a staff writer for The New Republic, whose recent reporting has highlighted Trump’s foreign policy missteps. In our conversation, we examined:

  • The potential duration of the war’s political fallout and its impact on Trump’s base;
  • How Trump voters are confronting a confluence of disastrous policies, including economic strain and military miscalculations;
  • Key expectations for the upcoming midterm elections in light of these developments.

Listen to the full discussion here.