Campaign Staffers Profit from Betting on Their Candidates Using Insider Polls

Political insiders have discovered a lucrative opportunity during election season: betting on their own candidates using nonpublic polling data. According to NPR, this practice has become commonplace in the industry, with campaign staffers earning thousands of dollars before favorable poll results are made public.

How Campaign Staffers Use Insider Polls to Profit

A staffer working on a statewide campaign in the southern United States shared with NPR how an external poll, shared with their team before its official release, triggered a wave of internal bets in support of their candidate. Despite internal campaign data showing the candidate performing worse than the external poll, the staffer and others placed bets in advance.

"Myself and others started placing bets before that poll came out. And then, sure enough, as soon as that poll came out, the stock went up and everybody made money."

The staffer spoke to NPR on the condition of anonymity.

Prediction Markets Crack Down on Political Betting

Despite the growing trend, some prediction markets are attempting to curb the behavior. In late April, Kalshi—a platform known for sports betting—banned and fined several political candidates after an internal investigation revealed they had bet on themselves.

"Because you have all this information and knowledge that isn’t publicly available yet, it’s almost foolish not to bet on it before it’s made public," the anonymous staffer told NPR.

Ethical and Legal Concerns Surround "Political Insider Trading"

The practice has sparked discussions about the ethics and legality of campaign betting, often referred to as "political insider trading." The process is straightforward: insiders gain access to nonpublic polls and use unreleased odds to inform bets on platforms like PredictIt or Polymarket. If a new poll suggests better odds of success than those currently listed, they purchase event contracts at a low price, anticipating that the poll’s release will boost their candidate’s favorability.

The staffer revealed, "The most I’ve ever made is thousands."

Key Takeaways

• Campaign staffers are betting on their candidates using nonpublic polling data.
• Prediction markets like Kalshi have banned and fined candidates for such activity.
• The practice raises ethical and legal concerns about "political insider trading."
• Platforms like PredictIt and Polymarket are commonly used for these bets.