DOJ Probes Suspicious Oil Trades Linked to U.S.-Israel War on Iran and Lebanon

The Justice Department is investigating potential insider trading tied to the sharp rise in oil prices amid the U.S.-Israel war on Iran and Lebanon. According to sources who spoke with ABC News, the department is examining at least four instances where traders profited over $2.6 billion by betting that oil prices would fall just before they did.

Key Suspicious Trades and Their Timing

• On March 23, traders placed bets totaling over $500 million that oil prices would drop, just 15 minutes before then-President Donald Trump announced a pause in planned attacks on Iran’s power centers.

• On April 7, traders bet $960 million on falling oil prices. Hours later, Trump announced a temporary ceasefire.

• On April 17, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on social media that the Strait of Hormuz remained open. Just 20 minutes before his announcement, traders bet $760 million on oil prices falling.

• On April 21, traders again bet $760 million on falling oil prices, 15 minutes before Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire.

Patterns Raise Concerns Over Insider Knowledge

All four instances suggest that traders may have had access to non-public information about imminent geopolitical developments, allowing them to profit from the volatility caused by the war.

Previous Cases Highlight Similar Suspicious Activity

The investigation follows a pattern of questionable trading activity linked to sensitive government information:

• In January, a Polymarket user bet $33,000 on the U.S. invading Venezuela and President Nicolás Maduro being ousted by January 31, when the odds were only 6%. The trader made $400,000 in less than 24 hours. It was later revealed that the user was a U.S. soldier involved in the raid on Maduro and was charged with “unlawful use of confidential government information for personal gain.”

• In 2023, Trump posted on Truth Social,

  “THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!! DJT”

  just four hours before announcing a 90-day pause on most retaliatory tariffs (excluding China), causing stocks to surge.

Skepticism Surrounds Potential Outcomes of the Probe

Observers remain skeptical about the likelihood of significant consequences from the investigation, citing concerns over the integrity of the Justice Department under its current leadership.