2026 Climate Records Already Broken: El Niño Threatens Worse Extremes Ahead

As the midpoint of 2026 approaches, multiple climate records have already been shattered, setting the stage for potentially unprecedented environmental extremes in the coming months. Arctic winter sea ice extent has reached a historic low, while numerous countries experienced record-breaking winter heatwaves. Global wildfires have already scorched more than 150 million hectares, according to climate scientists.

The emerging El Niño—a natural climate pattern characterized by warming Pacific Ocean waters—poses a significant threat to exacerbate these already severe conditions. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center estimates a 61% chance that El Niño will develop by July 2026 and persist through the end of the year. El Niño typically delivers a temporary global temperature boost, which could push 2026’s climate extremes to new heights.

On 11 May 2026, climate scientists from World Weather Attribution held a press briefing to outline the risks posed by the emerging El Niño, particularly when combined with human-caused climate change. The briefing highlighted potential intensification of wildfire seasons, extreme heatwaves, and worsening droughts worldwide.

Climate Change vs. El Niño: Which Poses a Bigger Threat?

During the briefing, Frederike Otto, a climate scientist at World Weather Attribution and Imperial College London, emphasized that climate change will likely play a more dominant role than El Niño in driving this year’s extreme weather events. Otto pointed to over 100 analyses conducted by World Weather Attribution that controlled for the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—the broader climate phenomenon that includes both El Niño and its counterpart, La Niña.

“We find that human-induced climate change has a much greater influence on the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events than ENSO.”

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California, Los Angeles and the California Institute for Water Resources, warned that El Niño’s effects will be “amplified considerably” by the nearly 1.5°C (2.7°F) of global warming already recorded as of 2026.

“In modern human history, we’ve never experienced a strong or very strong El Niño event amid pre-existing conditions that were this warm globally.”

Wildfire Risks Intensify Globally

The global wildfire season has already begun at an alarming pace, particularly in the African savanna, Southeast Asia, and northeastern China, according to Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather and wildfire researcher at Imperial College London and World Weather Attribution.

While El Niño’s impact on U.S. wildfires may be mixed, much of the country faces elevated wildfire risks. A strong El Niño could significantly worsen wildfire conditions in other regions, including the Amazon rainforest and Australia. With over 150 million hectares already burned globally, the stage is set for what experts warn could be “an unprecedented year of global fire.”