2026 NFL Draft Quarterback Shortage: How the 2027 QB Class is Reshaping Picks

The 2026 NFL Draft is just hours away, but the spotlight is already shifting to the 2027 class—driven by one critical factor: quarterbacks. While this year’s quarterback crop is widely regarded as weaker than recent classes, the 2027 installment is poised to redefine the draft landscape.

Draft analysts have already flagged the 2026 quarterback class as one of the least talented in recent memory. ESPN’s Matt Miller identified just 12 players with a true first-round grade, the lowest number in his analysis. Similarly, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler listed only 14 players with first-round grades, underscoring a broader lack of top-tier talent this year.

Quarterbacks are pivotal in shaping the draft’s trajectory. A strong QB class typically elevates the depth of the entire draft, as elite signal-callers push non-QB talent down the board. For example, the 2024 NFL Draft saw three quarterbacks selected in the first round, with a record-tying six taken overall—matching the legendary 1983 class. This surge in QB selections created opportunities for other high-caliber players to slip into later rounds.

In contrast, the 2026 class may lack such a domino effect. After Fernando Mendoza is selected first overall by the Las Vegas Raiders, the next quarterback could come hours later—or not until Friday. ESPN NFL insider Adam Schefter highlighted the possibility of a “quarterback gap year,” where the gap between the first and second QB selections mirrors drafts from 25 years ago.

Consider the 2001 NFL Draft: The Atlanta Falcons selected Michael Vick with the No. 1 pick, and the next quarterback wasn’t taken until the second round’s opening pick (No. 32), when the San Diego Chargers selected Drew Brees.

The 2026 draft’s second quarterback, Ty Simpson, is expected to follow a similar pattern. Schefter noted that the New York Jets (picking at No. 2, No. 16, and No. 33) and the Arizona Cardinals (picking at No. 3 and No. 34) are the most likely destinations for Simpson on Day 2. However, there are also reports of teams potentially trading up into the first round to secure him.

As the 2026 NFL Draft unfolds, the quarterback shortage is reshaping strategies across the league. With the 2027 class already generating buzz, teams may be forced to reconsider their long-term plans—or risk falling behind in the QB arms race.