2026 on Track for Second-Warmest Year Amid Strong El Niño Forecast

Record-Warm Start to 2026 Despite Early La Niña

The first three months of 2026 have been the fourth warmest on record, with each successive month surpassing historical averages by a greater margin. While weak La Niña conditions initially suppressed temperatures at the start of the year, scientists now anticipate the development of a strong—and potentially “super” El Niño event by early autumn.

El Niño and La Niña represent the warm and cool phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific that significantly influences global weather systems.

2026 Likely to Rank as Second-Warmest Year on Record

Based on temperature datasets from five leading research groups—NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA, Berkeley Earth, and Copernicus/ECMWF—Carbon Brief projects that 2026 is likely to become the second-warmest year on record.

Key projections for 2026 include:

• The year is virtually certain to rank among the four warmest on record.
• There is a 19% chance that 2026 could surpass 2024 as the warmest year ever recorded.
• A strong El Niño event later in 2026 would significantly increase the likelihood that 2027 becomes the warmest year on record.

Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Lows in Early 2026

In addition to near-record global temperatures, the year has already seen record-low Arctic sea ice cover. The winter peak in 2026 ties with 2025 for the lowest extent in the satellite record.

How Scientists Measure Global Temperatures

Carbon Brief’s analysis incorporates data from five major global temperature datasets:

• NASA GISTEMP
• NOAA GlobalTemp
• Hadley/UEA HadCRUT5
• Berkeley Earth
• Copernicus/ECMWF ERA5

The figure below illustrates annual global average surface temperatures from 1970 to 2025, alongside the first-quarter temperatures of 2026 (colored dots). Anomalies are plotted relative to the 1981–2010 baseline and adjusted for pre-industrial levels based on datasets extending back to 1850.

Comparing 2026 Temperatures to Historical Records

Another analysis compares global temperatures for each month from 1940 to 2026, using Carbon Brief’s averaged temperature records. The black line represents 2026 so far, while colored lines denote monthly temperatures from previous decades.

Note: Early-year temperatures may not fully represent annual trends, as warming relative to pre-industrial levels tends to peak during northern hemispheric winter months (December–February).

Methodology: How Carbon Brief Calculates Global Temperatures

Carbon Brief’s best estimate combines temperature records using a common 1981–2010 baseline. It then incorporates the average warming since the pre-industrial period (1850–1900) from datasets that extend back to 1850—NOAA, Hadley, and Berkeley. This approach aligns with the methodology used by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its state of the climate reports.

What’s Next? The Role of El Niño in Climate Trends

As El Niño conditions strengthen later in 2026, global temperatures are expected to rise further. A strong El Niño event could:

• Accelerate warming trends, increasing the likelihood of 2027 becoming the warmest year on record.
• Intensify extreme weather events worldwide, including heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall.

Scientists emphasize that while short-term variability plays a role, the long-term trend of global warming driven by greenhouse gas emissions remains the dominant factor in rising temperatures.