Bitcoin’s Path to $100K: How US Policy and Fed Leadership Could Drive the Rally

The $100,000 level represents the “next magnet” for Bitcoin investors if the cryptocurrency continues its upward trajectory, according to Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank. Köymen told DL News that two major shifts in US policy and governance could solidify Bitcoin’s rally: the potential enactment of the Clarity Act and the appointment of new leadership at the Federal Reserve.

“The structural story is where we see the bigger signal,” Köymen said. “Clearer bank access, no CBDC competition, and a chair who treats crypto as embedded rather than exotic is a bigger deal than a quarter or two of marginally more hawkish tone.”

Federal Reserve Regime Change Under Kevin Warsh

US President Donald Trump has already taken steps to limit the Federal Reserve’s digital currency ambitions by signing an executive order banning the creation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) in the US.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to complete his term on May 15, 2025. Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh, a vocal crypto advocate, as his replacement. Köymen emphasized that Warsh’s confirmation would mark a turning point for Bitcoin.

“He’s the most crypto-literate chair in Fed history,” Köymen said. “He understands the technology and has publicly called Bitcoin a disciplining force on bad policy.”

In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, April 22, 2025, Warsh described himself as an “independent actor” and outlined priorities including balance-sheet reduction, stricter inflation measurement, and data-driven policymaking.

While Warsh’s near-term stance slightly reduces the likelihood of immediate rate cuts, Fed Funds futures have not shown significant repricing since his hearing. Köymen remains optimistic about the medium-term impact on risk assets.

Political Hurdles and Market Sentiment

Warsh’s confirmation faces significant political challenges. Republican Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina has placed a hold on the nomination, citing concerns over potential market instability if Warsh’s policies are implemented.

Prediction markets reflect growing skepticism. Following Warsh’s Senate grilling, Polymarket bettors reduced the odds of his confirmation by May 15 to 28%, down from 92% in March.

Even if confirmed, Warsh would need consensus with 11 other Fed governors to meaningfully shift policy direction.

Despite these obstacles, Köymen views the potential regime change as a long-term positive.

“Over the medium to long term, we view the Warsh appointment as a net positive for Bitcoin and broader crypto assets,” he said.

Köymen also noted that governance changes at the Fed, combined with adjustments to the Supplementary Leverage Ratio, could improve financial conditions for crypto markets.

The Clarity Act: A Catalyst for Bitcoin’s Rally

The Clarity Act, described as the most consequential US crypto market structure bill to date, could further boost Bitcoin if signed into law, according to Köymen.

However, time is running out. Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, warned on Monday, April 21, 2025, that the bill has roughly 50–50 odds of passage this year. Thorn cited competing legislative priorities, including Iran debates, Department of Homeland Security funding, and a crowded nomination schedule.

“If the markup slips past mid-May, the probability of enactment in 2025 drops significantly,” Thorn stated.