Gavin Newsom Faces Succession Crisis as Alex Padilla Declines 2028 Run, Looming Republican Threat

Gavin Newsom’s path to a potential 2026 presidential run just got rockier. On November 4, Senator Alex Padilla delivered an unwelcome surprise by announcing he would not seek the California governorship in 2028—depriving Newsom of his preferred successor on the same day the governor secured a victory in a statewide redistricting referendum.

Why This Matters for Newsom’s 2028 Ambitions

The stakes are high. Newsom has avoided endorsing a successor ahead of the June 2 primary, leaving the Democratic field unsettled. His reluctance stems from a desire to maintain strong relationships with whomever emerges as the nominee, regardless of who wins.

The Succession Gap: Who’s Left?

Newsom’s preferred candidates have either withdrawn or declined to run:

• Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis exited the race in August 2024.
• Attorney General Rob Bonta chose not to run.
• Former Vice President Kamala Harris declined the opportunity.
• Former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out amid sexual misconduct allegations, which he has denied.

Newsom privately expressed frustration with a CNN report in April that framed his critiques of these candidates as dismissive. He later clarified that the story did not fully capture his true sentiments.

Republican Threat Looms Over California’s ‘Jungle Primary’

Polls suggest a troubling scenario: two Republican candidates could finish first and second in California’s top-two primary system, effectively locking Democrats out of the November general election. Such an outcome would represent a public repudiation of Newsom’s leadership in a state long dominated by Democrats.

To counter this risk, Democrats are quietly mobilizing to boost voter turnout. However, if the Republican lockout remains plausible, Newsom may be forced to intervene by endorsing a single Democratic candidate to improve their chances in the general election.

Potential Democratic Successors—and Their Flaws

Each contender carries baggage or has clashed with Newsom:

• Xavier Becerra, former Biden administration Health and Human Services secretary, has surged in polls since Swalwell’s exit. However, some Democrats question his electability against a general election opponent like Steve Hilton, a former Fox News personality. Others argue Becerra’s tenure in the Biden administration showed a reluctance to tackle tough assignments, prioritizing personal political goals over broader governance—a critique shared by former Biden officials, including Ron Klain, the former White House chief of staff.
• Tom Steyer, a billionaire who has poured over $100 million into the race, has been at odds with Newsom’s team. Last fall, Steyer launched ads during the redistricting ballot measure, Proposition 50, that contradicted Newsom’s strategy—some believe the ads may have inadvertently weakened the campaign.
• Katie Porter, the former congresswoman, has struggled to gain traction, polling in the single digits or low double digits. Her campaign has been further hampered by past controversies, including videos of her confronting an aide and a public dispute with a

What’s Next for Newsom?

With the June 2 primary approaching, Newsom faces a critical decision: either allow the Democratic field to remain fragmented or make a high-stakes endorsement that could shape the future of his political legacy. A Republican governor replacing him would not only undermine his influence but also reshape the national political landscape ahead of 2028.