Summer Box Office Surge: Will the Hot Streak Last Through Memorial Day?

The summer box office has kicked off with a scorching start, but industry analysts warn that the heat may not last. Thanks to the blockbusters "The Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Michael", along with a boost from "Mortal Kombat II" over the past weekend, the May box office has already amassed $405 million through May 13—the second-highest May total in the past decade.

However, the hot streak is expected to fade in the second half of the month. Currently, only two films in the remaining May slate are projected to open with more than $10 million: "The Mandalorian Grogu", which is set to debut over Memorial Day weekend with an estimated $80 million-plus, and A24’s "The Backrooms", which is expected to earn around $20 million the following weekend.

This weekend’s lineup offers no major openings. The new releases include:

• Focus Features’ "Obsession" – A critically acclaimed horror film from TIFF, tipped to be the weekend’s top newcomer with a projected $7-9 million opening.
• Amazon MGM’s "Is God Is" – A pulpy revenge film generating buzz.
• Black Bear’s "In the Grey" – A Guy Ritchie-directed action film starring Jake Gyllenhaal and Henry Cavill.

While "Obsession" could exceed expectations if opening night word-of-mouth matches the strong reactions from its Toronto midnight premiere, it is unlikely to dethrone "The Devil Wears Prada 2" from the No. 1 spot. If it holds, combined with "The Mandalorian Grogu", Disney will top the box office charts every weekend in May.

For theaters, a slower Memorial Day weekend is on the horizon, though industry leaders remain optimistic about the summer’s overall performance. The stronger numbers are expected to arrive in mid-June with Pixar’s "Toy Story 5", and possibly earlier with films like Amazon MGM’s "Masters of the Universe", Paramount’s "Scary Movie", and Universal’s "Disclosure Day".

Daniel Loria, SVP and Editorial Director at Boxoffice, has been cautioning about the Memorial Day weekend shortfall for weeks.

"I’ve been telling people for weeks that Memorial Day weekend doesn’t have the lineup to come close to matching what we saw last year." — Daniel Loria, SVP and Editorial Director at Boxoffice

The Memorial Day weekend box office is projected to fall far below last year’s record $330 million haul, which was driven by Disney’s "Lilo & Stitch" and Paramount’s final "Mission: Impossible" film. Analysts suggest it may even slide below $200 million for the four-day period, preventing May from reaching the $1 billion mark. However, the strong start to the month should keep the final May total in line with last year’s $967 million.

A pre-summer projection obtained by TheWrap had estimated a $4.3 billion summer box office, with May matching last year’s performance despite a softer Memorial Day weekend, followed by a stronger June and July.