Trump Administration's 'Zero' Border Crossing Claim Collapses Under Scrutiny

The Trump administration's claim that zero people are illegally crossing the southern border is collapsing under scrutiny. Despite official declarations of a sealed border, evidence suggests otherwise.

Why the 'Zero Crossings' Claim Fails

The administration asserts that no illegal crossings occur, but data and on-the-ground reports tell a different story. While the surge in asylum seekers has slowed, smugglers and cartels remain active.

"We're still seeing the groups cross in the very difficult terrain to work, head-to-toe camouflage, large backpacks, things like that."

Captain Timothy Williams, Cochise County Sheriff’s Office, Arizona

Williams oversees the Southeastern Arizona Border Region Enforcement (SABRE) program, which uses cameras to monitor illegal crossings from California to New Mexico.

Key Data Points Contradicting Official Claims

• SABRE tracking: 200 to 300 crossers detected monthly, with a 33% apprehension rate.
• Agent reassignment: Roughly 200 Border Patrol agents were moved to the Laredo sector in Texas to address an increase in gotaways—people detected crossing but not apprehended.
• Sector arrests: Compared to March 2025, arrests rose in the Laredo, Del Rio, Rio Grande Valley, Tucson, and El Centro sectors—covering over half of the southern border’s mileage.

Senator Lankford Highlights Persistent Smuggling Threats

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), chair of the Senate border security subcommittee, emphasized the ongoing threat posed by cartels:

"[C]artels find smuggling people and smuggling drugs extremely lucrative, and they're always going to test different ways to be able to try to sneak drugs and people. So that's not going to stop, which is why we got to have good, consistent enforcement."

Lankford noted that the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has not recently briefed his subcommittee on gotaway statistics but expects updates soon.

Gotaways and Arrests Surge Despite Claims

According to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data, 8,000 people were encountered attempting illegal crossings in March—a 15% increase from the previous year. However, gotaway statistics are not consistently shared by sector or on a regular schedule.

In fiscal year 2025, approximately 70,000 gotaways were reported, as outlined in an annual budget report.

Local Law Enforcement Challenges Official Narrative

Sheriff Mark Dannels of Cochise County, which oversees the SABRE program, offered a more nuanced perspective:

"What the border is is manageable. That's what I call it."

Dannels’s county shares SABRE data with other sheriffs and Border Patrol agencies.

Administration’s 'Zero' Claims vs. Reality

The Trump administration has repeatedly declared the border sealed, despite mounting evidence to the contrary.

• December 2024: Secretary of War Pete Hegseth stated at the Reagan National Defense Forum, "Today the number of illegals crossing into our country is zero," gesturing a "0" with his hand.
• February 2025: White House Communications Director Steven Cheung claimed on X (formerly Twitter) that there were "Zero border crossing for 9 months straight."
• April 2025: Border Patrol Chief Michael Banks posted on X, "You will be detected, arrested, prosecuted, and deported. The Border is Closed!"

In contrast, Tom Homan, the White House Border Czar, told Axios:

"Today, our border is the most secure that it's been in my lifetime ... This doesn't mean there is no more work to accomplish—that is why this Administration secured significant funding from Congress to further fortify border security."