Trump's 'Golden Dome' Missile Defense System Could Cost $1.2 Trillion, CBO Reports

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released a report estimating that Donald Trump’s proposed ‘Golden Dome’ missile defense system would cost $1.2 trillion over the next 20 years. The federal agency’s findings challenge Trump’s earlier estimate of $175 billion, highlighting significant discrepancies in projected costs.

From Campaign Promise to Pentagon Priority

Trump first introduced the ‘Golden Dome’ during his 2024 campaign as a ‘GREAT IRON DOME MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD OVER OUR ENTIRE COUNTRY’ designed to ‘PREVENT WORLD WAR III’. The plan was later rebranded as the ‘Golden Dome,’ with over a dozen major American weapons manufacturers and more than 2,300 smaller companies competing to develop the system.

Scientific and Military Skepticism

Scientists have raised concerns about the feasibility of the Golden Dome, noting that it is modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome—a system designed to protect a small geographic area from short-range missiles. The U.S., however, lacks such constraints, making the system’s application uncertain.

Space Force Gen. Michael Guetlein testified before the House Armed Services Strategic Forces subcommittee in April, acknowledging that a satellite-based interceptor system might not be cost-effective. The administration has since incorporated satellite-based interceptors into its vision for the Golden Dome.

Cost Overruns and Limited Effectiveness

Trump estimated in May 2024 that the Golden Dome would cost around $175 billion and be operational by the end of his term in 2029. The CBO’s report, however, suggests that the actual cost could exceed $1.2 trillion—a figure nearly seven times higher than Trump’s estimate.

Even at this staggering cost, the CBO warns that the system would not be foolproof.

The system could be overwhelmed by a full-scale attack mounted by a peer or near-peer adversary.

It would not be an impenetrable shield or be able to fully counter a large attack of the sort that Russia or China might be able to launch.

As a result, the strategic consequences of deploying an NMD system with the capacity considered here are unclear.

Profit for Defense Contractors

Despite the uncertainties surrounding the Golden Dome’s effectiveness, defense contractors stand to profit. Twelve companies, including Raytheon, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, and Anduril, have already been awarded $3.2 billion in contracts for the project.