Trump’s Iran Strategy Backfires as Hardliners Outmaneuver U.S. in Escalating Conflict

If your sole source of news about the war in Iran were Donald Trump’s Truth Social feed, you might believe the United States was on the verge of a historic military victory—perhaps the most significant since World War II.

“Iran is collapsing financially!” Trump posted just before midnight on Tuesday. “They want the Strait of Hormuz opened immediately—Starving for cash! Losing 500 Million Dollars a day. Military and Police complaining that they are not getting paid. SOS!!!”

Iran is undeniably reeling after weeks of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes. These attacks have killed its longtime supreme leader, devastated much of its military infrastructure, and reduced large parts of Tehran, its capital, to rubble. Yet pain in war is relative, and Iran’s leaders have inflicted their own share of suffering on Trump.

Since Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz to maritime trade, global oil prices have surged—including a 30% spike at U.S. gas pumps. In response, Trump’s already low approval rating has plummeted to historic lows. Iranian leaders believe they can endure more pressure than Trump can withstand, and they have evidence: Trump’s decision on Tuesday to extend a ceasefire indefinitely—after Iran had just refused to return to negotiations—was widely seen as a sign that “Trump blinked first,” according to The New York Times.

Trump’s Desperation Exposes Flaws in Iran Strategy

Trump is clearly desperate to extricate himself from a disastrous war he initiated. His flailing, however, only underscores the incoherence of his original plan. From the start, Trump lacked a clear rationale—public or private—for assassinating Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and eliminating much of Iran’s leadership, beyond a vague desire for “regime change.” Whether such change has materialized is debatable, but one outcome is certain: The war has destroyed the conditions for a genuine democratic movement to emerge.

By killing Iran’s leadership and attempting to bomb the country into submission—months after a popular uprising posed a real challenge to the regime—the U.S. and Israel have neutered moderate factions while empowering hardline military forces. In short, Trump’s actions have made Iran worse for its own people and more dangerous to the world.

Ceasefire Brings Little Clarity as Conflict Escalates

The ceasefire that began on April 8 has done little to clarify the war’s trajectory. If anything, the conflict has grown more confusing since then. The Strait of Hormuz has been opened and closed multiple times. The U.S. claims to have imposed a “blockade,” though its real purpose appears to be narrative manipulation—allowing Trump to falsely take credit for keeping the critical shipping channel shut.

Meanwhile, Iranian gunboats—part of a navy Trump and Secretary of “War” Pete Hegseth have repeatedly claimed to have destroyed—continue to harass vessels and even seize cargo ships. The consequences of the strait’s closure are severe and could, given the volume of global oil trade passing through it, trigger a major economic crisis if the impasse persists.