Marine Heatwaves Nearly Double Economic Damage from Tropical Cyclones, Study Finds

Tropical cyclones that rapidly intensify after passing over marine heatwaves can become “supercharged,” significantly increasing the likelihood of severe economic losses, according to a new study. The research also finds that such storms produce higher rainfall rates and maximum wind speeds.

The study, published in Science Advances, analyzed the economic damages caused by nearly 800 tropical cyclones worldwide between 1981 and 2023. Even accounting for coastal development, the findings show that rapidly intensifying cyclones passing near abnormally warm ocean regions cause 93% greater economic losses than storms that do not.

Expert Insight on the Findings

“This is a step forward in understanding how we can better refine our predictions of what might happen in the future in an increasingly warm world.”

A researcher not involved in the study told Carbon Brief that the analysis improves projections for future climate impacts.

Understanding Rapid Intensification

Tropical cyclones—including hurricanes, cyclones, and typhoons—are rotating storm systems that form over warm ocean waters. They are characterized by low-pressure cores and sustained winds exceeding 120 km/h. When these storms make landfall, they often cause catastrophic damage, accounting for six of the top 10 disasters in terms of economic loss between 1900 and 2024, according to Aon’s 2025 Climate Catastrophe Insight Report.

Economic losses from these storms stem primarily from high wind speeds, extreme rainfall, and destructive storm surges.

What Is Rapid Intensification?

Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical cyclone strengthens significantly in a short time frame. The phenomenon is defined as an increase in sustained wind speed of at least 30 knots (approximately 55 km/h) within a 24-hour period.

Several factors contribute to rapid intensification, including:

• Warm ocean temperatures – Provide energy to fuel the storm.
• High humidity – Supports storm development.
• Low vertical wind shear – Minimizes disruption to the storm’s structure.

Since the 1980s, rapid intensification has become more frequent, and climate projections suggest it will increase further as global temperatures rise. While the impact of climate change on the overall frequency of tropical cyclones remains uncertain, the trend toward stronger and more rapidly intensifying storms is clearer.

Marine Heatwaves: The Fuel Behind Supercharged Storms

Marine heatwaves—periods of abnormally high ocean temperatures—are also increasing in frequency due to recent warming. Research indicates that these heatwaves can trigger rapid intensification in tropical cyclones by acting as a “fuel source” for the storms.

Dr. Hamed Moftakhari, an expert in coastal engineering, explains that warm ocean water provides the thermal energy necessary for cyclones to strengthen quickly.

Future Climate Strategies

Given the projected rise in marine heatwaves under future climate change, the study authors emphasize that interactions between storms and these heatwaves “should be given greater consideration in future strategies for climate adaptation and preparedness.”