New York Jets Face Critical Decision at No. 2: Arvell Reese vs. David Bailey in 2026 NFL Draft

The New York Jets enter the 2026 NFL Draft with a pivotal decision at the No. 2 overall pick, following a disappointing first season under head coach Aaron Glenn. With the top quarterback prospect, Fernando Mendoza, likely off the board before their selection, the Jets will continue to rely on Geno Smith for at least another year.

Instead of chasing a quarterback, the Jets are widely expected to select an edge rusher to bolster a defense that ranked 31st in points allowed per game (29.6) and failed to record a single interception in 2025. Glenn, a former Pro Bowl cornerback and Lions defensive coordinator, has already added safety Minkah Fitzpatrick and linebacker Kingsley Enegbare to the roster, but the defense still lacks a foundational piece capable of elevating surrounding talent.

Here’s a breakdown of the current betting odds for the No. 2 pick, via FanDuel:

Arvell Reese: The Favorite with High Upside

Arvell Reese (-185) is the betting favorite to be the first non-quarterback selected in the 2026 draft. The Ohio State standout projects as an immediate-impact edge rusher or off-ball linebacker, thanks to his elite agility, speed, and pass-rushing repertoire. Reese was a cornerstone of one of the most dominant defenses in college football last season, earning first-team All-American honors and finishing as a finalist for the Butkus Award (nation’s top linebacker).

His long-term value may depend on scheme fit, but Glenn could unlock Reese’s modern skill set to redefine the Jets’ defensive identity. Reese’s ability to close on pass catchers in space and disrupt pocket presence makes him a high-ceiling prospect.

David Bailey: The Reliable Defensive Anchor

David Bailey (+140) is viewed by many as the safest defensive prospect in the 2026 class, though his odds of going No. 2 have softened slightly in recent days. The Texas Tech transfer is a powerful pass-rusher with a proven track record of collapsing the pocket and forcing quarterbacks into rushed mechanics.

After three standout seasons at Stanford, Bailey transferred to Texas Tech and immediately became a first-team All-American, finishing as a finalist for the Lombardi Award (nation’s best lineman). He racked up 14.5 sacks and 19.5 tackles for loss in 2025, showcasing his ability to be a tone-setter on defense for years to come. Glenn may see Bailey as the bankable building block the Jets need to stabilize their defensive front.

Longshots and Potential Trade Scenarios

If the Jets opt to trade down from the No. 2 pick, the team acquiring the selection is likely targeting a unique playmaker—potentially Reese or his Ohio State teammate, Sonny Styles (+4500). Styles, a versatile linebacker, could appeal to a team seeking a hybrid defender with high athletic upside.

The Jets’ decision at No. 2 will shape their defensive identity for years, with Reese offering ceiling and Bailey providing immediate reliability. Glenn’s choice will determine whether the Jets can finally address their defensive woes and build a contender around Smith for the 2027 season.