Rising Political Violence in the US: Data, Trends, and Causes

An FBI tactical team prepares to enter a house linked to the suspect in the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting in Torrance, California. | Patrick T. Fallon/AFP via Getty Images

President Donald Trump has survived multiple assassination attempts, fueling speculation about their authenticity. However, the reality is more alarming: political violence in the U.S. is undeniably rising. While some dismiss these incidents as staged, the data tells a different story.

Recent High-Profile Attacks

In the past year alone, several violent incidents have underscored the growing threat:

• A gunman assassinated conservative activist Charlie Kirk.
• A shooter killed a Democratic lawmaker and her husband in Minnesota, also attempting to kill others.
• A man set fire to the home of Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro.
• Trump survived three attacks, including one at the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner.
• A California man armed with a shotgun, handgun, and knives was arrested after breaching a security checkpoint, intending to target Trump administration officials.

In a Monday press conference, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt blamed Democratic lawmakers and media figures for the violence, stating that “hateful and violent rhetoric directed at President Trump…helped legitimize this violence.” While rhetoric can contribute to normalization, the issue is far more complex and not one-sided.

The Numbers on Political Violence

Tracking political violence is challenging due to inconsistent definitions and reliance on media reports, which are declining. Despite these limitations, key datasets reveal a troubling trend:

Increased Threats Against Congress

The U.S. Capitol Police, which tracks threats against members of Congress, their families, and staff, has recorded a significant rise in incidents since data collection began nine years ago.

Local-Level Surge Post-2024 Election

Princeton University’s Bridging Divides Initiative found a sharp increase in local threats following major political events, including the 2024 presidential election and the death of Charlie Kirk.

Global Assassination Trends

The University of Maryland’s Global Terrorism Database, covering incidents from 1970 to 2020, shows assassinations and attempted assassinations began rising globally in the mid-2010s, after a decline in the 1990s.

Antigovernment Violence at 30-Year High

New data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, reported by the Wall Street Journal, indicates that antigovernment violence in the U.S. reached a 30-year high in 2025.

Why Is Political Violence Increasing?

The rise in political violence is driven by multiple factors:

• Escalating political rhetoric and polarization.
• Declining trust in institutions and media.
• Increased accessibility to firearms.
• Social media amplifying divisive narratives.

While no single cause explains the trend, the convergence of these factors has created a volatile environment where violence is more likely to occur.