Study Finds Trump's Mass Deportation Policy Fails to Boost Native-Born Worker Employment

President Donald Trump’s mass deportation campaign has placed about 60,000 undocumented immigrants in Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detention and deported between 350,000 and 605,000 people. Many assume this crackdown benefits native-born American workers by creating labor shortages in sectors like restaurants, construction, and healthcare, thereby raising wages for nonimmigrants.

However, a new study by researchers Elizabeth Cox and Chloe N. East from the University of Colorado at Boulder challenges this assumption. Their findings indicate that U.S.-born workers have not benefited from the ICE raids. In fact, some native-born workers in industries with high immigrant employment have seen their employment prospects worsen.

How ICE Raids Reduced Labor Participation Among Undocumented Workers

The study highlights that ICE raids not only reduced labor participation among the undocumented workers directly arrested but also instilled fear in a much larger group of undocumented workers who avoided work to evade detection. In the most immigrant-intensive labor sectors:

• Employment among undocumented workers fell by 3.4 percentage points.
• For male workers—who make up the majority of immigrants arrested by ICE—employment dropped by 4.6 percentage points.
• The average number of hours worked per week by these workers fell by two hours.

If higher unemployment among undocumented workers is considered a success, the Trump administration’s policy may be deemed effective. However, for traditional conservatives who advocate for policies encouraging work among low-income populations, these results represent a significant failure.

No Boost for Native-Born Workers in Immigrant-Intensive Sectors

The study also examined whether native-born workers filled the jobs left vacant by undocumented immigrants. The authors expected to see an increase in labor supply among U.S.-based workers in these sectors, but found no change at all.

Instead, the research suggests that native-born workers in immigrant-heavy industries often hold higher-level positions that depend on undocumented workers filling lower-rung roles. When there aren’t enough undocumented immigrants to occupy these positions, demand for native-born workers declines. This effect is particularly pronounced among native-born workers with the same skill level as undocumented immigrants—those with a high school diploma or less.

For this group, the study found a 1.3 percent reduction in employment. The authors concluded that for every six lost male likely undocumented workers, there is a loss of one male U.S.-born worker.

Trump’s Theory Fails to Materialize in the Labor Market

The Trump administration’s theory suggests that removing undocumented immigrants from the workforce will lead native-born Americans to fill those jobs. However, the study’s findings contradict this hypothesis. The researchers note that such a shift might only occur if unemployment were to rise significantly, which has not been the case.

The study underscores that the mass deportation policy has not achieved its intended economic benefits for native-born workers, instead creating broader labor market disruptions.