US Special Forces Sergeant Arrested for $409K Polymarket Profit Using Classified Maduro Intel

United States Army Special Forces master sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke has been arrested and charged with using classified information to place bets on the prediction marketplace Polymarket. The information related to the capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.

According to the Department of Justice, Van Dyke allegedly made a total profit of $409,881 from 13 bets placed between December 27, 2025, and January 2, 2026. He created a Polymarket account around December 26, 2025, and took the “Yes” position on multiple wagers, including:

• “US Forces in Venezuela… by January 31, 2026”
• “Maduro out by… January 31, 2026”
• “Will the US invade Venezuela by January 31”
• “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by… January 31”

Van Dyke allegedly bet a total of $33,034 and profited over ten times that amount from his winnings. He withdrew his money from Polymarket on the day Maduro was captured, January 3, and transferred it to a foreign crypto vault before depositing it into a new online brokerage account.

Following reports of an anonymous gambler making nearly half a million dollars before the public announcement, concerns arose about insider military knowledge being used for profit. The Justice Department alleges that Van Dyke attempted to conceal his actions by:

• Requesting Polymarket to delete his account, falsely claiming he lost access to the email used to register
• Changing the email address linked to his crypto account to one not associated with his name

Van Dyke has been charged with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, each carrying a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison. He also faces one count of wire fraud with a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison and one count of unlawful monetary transaction with a maximum sentence of 10 years.

Prediction marketplaces have faced repeated insider trading issues. Recent actions include Kalshi penalizing three political candidates for alleged insider trading related to their campaigns:

• Matt Klein of Minnesota: fine under $1,000 and suspension up to five years
• Ezekiel Enriquez of Texas: fine under $1,000 and suspension up to five years
• Mark Moran of Virginia: disciplinary action, five-year suspension, and fine over $6,000