Why U.S. Sea Level Science Loss Threatens Global Coastal Communities

Since the beginning of the 20th century, global sea level has risen by about 20 centimeters (roughly 8 inches) [Fox-Kemper et al., 2021]. As a result, coastal and island communities worldwide face more frequent high-tide flooding, worsening storm surges, and escalating damage to homes and infrastructure.

In the United States alone, human-caused sea level rise increased damages from Hurricane Sandy (2012) by about $8 billion [Strauss et al., 2021].

The U.S. Role in Global Sea Level Research

The United States has long been a cornerstone of the global climate research community, particularly in sea level science. For decades, U.S. scientists have tracked past and present sea levels, projected future rise, and informed nations, states, and communities about shoreline risks. However, this leadership is now at risk due to policy shifts under the Trump administration, which have targeted scientific research broadly and climate research specifically.

Analysis of sea level rise projection science [Garner et al., 2018] highlights:

• The U.S.’s historic dominance in producing critical sea level research.
• How recent attacks on scientific institutions may undermine progress in understanding sea level change.
• The urgent need for multi-faceted action to preserve knowledge and prevent further erosion of measurement and projection capabilities.

Four Decades of U.S. Leadership in Sea Level Science

By the late 1970s, scientists recognized the growing threat climate change posed to Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and the coastal risks from their melting [Mercer, 1978].

The first global mean sea level (GMSL) projections were published in 1982 [Gornitz et al., 1982], followed by the first planning-oriented sea level scenarios a few years later [National Research Council, 1987].

Since 1982, 103 studies have produced GMSL projections [Garner et al., 2018]. Of these:

• 33 studies (including the first five) were led by scientists at U.S. institutions.
• 33 studies (some overlapping with the above) received U.S. federal funding from agencies including:

• National Science Foundation (NSF) – 16 studies
• NASA – 10 studies
• NOAA – 8 studies
• U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) – 6 studies
• U.S. Department of Defense – 3 studies
• U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) – 2 studies
• EPA – 2 studies