2026 NHL Draft Lottery: Maple Leafs Secure Top Pick, McKenna vs. Stenberg Showdown Looms

The NHL’s 2026 Draft lottery took place on March 27, 2026, with the Toronto Maple Leafs securing the No. 1 overall pick. The Leafs now face a pivotal decision: draft either Gavin McKenna of Penn State or Ivar Stenberg of Frölunda HC.

This year’s draft class has defied early expectations, with more parity at the top than initially projected. McKenna, a rangy left wing, has been a top prospect for much of the 2025-26 season. His combination of height, playmaking, and ability to control the pace from the wing makes him a low-risk franchise cornerstone. While comparisons to Connor Bedard and Macklin Celebrini have surfaced, his ceiling may not match theirs. Teams may consider converting him to center, adding versatility to his profile.

Stenberg, meanwhile, has surged up draft boards after a strong showing in the SHL. At just 18 years old, his professional readiness—highlighted by hockey IQ and elite shot volume—positions him as a potential top pick. His polish and immediate-impact potential could sway teams toward selecting him first overall.

Below is a rapid-fire mock draft reflecting the current lottery standings and projected selections for the 2026 NHL Draft:

• Pick 1: Toronto Maple Leafs — Gavin McKenna (LW, Penn State, NCAA)
• Pick 2: San Jose Sharks — Ivar Stenberg (LW/RW, Frölunda HC, SHL)
• Pick 3: Vancouver Canucks — Keaton Verhoeff (D, North Dakota, NCAA)
• Pick 4: Chicago Blackhawks — Chase Reid (D, Soo Greyhounds, OHL)
• Pick 5: New York Rangers — Tynan Lawrence (C, Boston University, NCAA)
• Pick 6: Calgary Flames — Caleb Malhotra (C, Brantford Bulldogs, OHL)
• Pick 7: Seattle Kraken — Viggo Björck (C/RW, Djurgårdens IF, SHL)
• Pick 8: Winnipeg Jets — Ethan Belchetz (LW, Windsor Spitfires, OHL)
• Pick 9: Florida Panthers — Carson Carels (D, Prince George Cougars, WHL)
• Pick 10: Nashville Predators — Daxon Rudolph (D, Prince Albert Raiders, WHL)
• Pick 11: St. Louis Blues — Adam Novotny (LW/RW, Peterborough Petes, OHL)
• Pick 12: New Jersey Devils — Ryan Lin (D, Vancouver Giants, WHL)
• Pick 13: New York Islanders — Mathis Preston (C, Spokane Chiefs, WHL)
• Pick 14: Columbus Blue Jackets — Oliver Suvanto (C, Tappara, Liiga)
• Pick 15: St. Louis Blues (from Detroit) — Albert Smits (D, Jukurit, Liiga)
• Pick 16: Washington Capitals — Xavier Villeneuve (D, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada, QMJHL)

These projections are based on the lottery odds in effect entering the night, which were as follows:

• Vancouver Canucks — 18.5%
• Chicago Blackhawks — 13.5%
• New York Rangers — 11.5%
• Calgary Flames — 9.5%
• Toronto Maple Leafs (Top 5 protected to Bruins) — 8.5%
• Seattle Kraken — 7.5%
• Winnipeg Jets — 6.5%
• Florida Panthers — 6.0%
• San Jose Sharks — 5.0%
• Nashville Predators — 3.5%
• St. Louis Blues — 3.0%
• New Jersey Devils — 2.5%
• New York Islanders — 2.0%
• Columbus Blue Jackets — 1.5%
• St. Louis Blues (from Red Wings) — 0.5%
• Washington Capitals — 0.5%

A deeper analysis of the 2026 draft class will follow as the event approaches, but for now, the lottery results have set the stage for an intriguing top selection.