AutoZone Memo Warns of 40% Motor Oil Shortage Amid Iran Conflict

Reports of a looming motor oil shortage linked to the ongoing conflict in Iran are intensifying. An alleged leaked AutoZone memo estimates a 40% drop in lubricant supply, raising concerns about future oil change costs and availability.

AutoZone Memo Details 40% Supply Drop

On May 12, 2026, a user on Reddit posted what appears to be an internal AutoZone memo for the Southeast region. The memo states:

“Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category [lubricating fluids] to drop by 40%.”

This figure has been corroborated by multiple industry reports, signaling potential price hikes for oil changes, transmission fluid changes, and other automotive lubricants.

Shop Owners Report Rising Prices and Supply Issues

Local auto shops are already preparing for the impact. A general manager in Little Rock, Arkansas, told Carscoops:

“They are being very secretive about all that. They say the price is for sure gonna go up, but they don’t know how the mainline volume will be affected yet.”

Another shop owner in Washington, D.C., shared that Mobil and Shell informed retailers like Costco and Walmart they are out of product to ship. Later that day, a supply chain bulletin was posted, advising partial substitution of oils, including 0W-8 with 0W-16 and 0W-16 with 0W-20.

Industry-Wide Concerns Precede Recent Reports

The issue traces back to early April 2026, when a ToyotaNation forum member noted:

“About 40% of global GTL Group 3 base oil production is offline as of three weeks ago due to the ongoing situation in the Middle East.”

This aligns with broader concerns about oil supply disruptions. A shop owner in Las Vegas told ABC 13:

“Unfortunately I might have to up [my prices] a dollar or two, but for right now I’m trying to keep [prices stable].”

AutoZone Has Not Responded to Requests for Comment

AutoZone has not yet responded to inquiries from multiple outlets regarding the memo or the reported supply issues.

What Consumers Should Know

• Motor oil supply could drop by 40% due to the Iran conflict.
• Prices for oil changes and related services may rise as supply tightens.
• Some retailers and service centers are already adjusting their supply strategies.