China Analyzes US Military Performance in Iran War to Shape Future Pacific Strategy

The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier conducts US blockade operations in the Arabian Sea on April 16, 2026. | US Navy via Getty Images

Two months into the US-Iran war, the conflict has devolved into a stalemate with no clear resolution in sight. Both nations assert strategic advantages, yet one party has emerged as the undeniable beneficiary — and it is neither Washington nor Tehran.

“China’s watching this war very closely,” says James Palmer, deputy editor of Foreign Policy and author of its China Brief newsletter. Palmer discussed China’s observations with Today, Explained co-host Noel King, focusing on lessons Beijing is extracting from America’s military conduct in Iran. Key takeaways include the rapid depletion of US munitions, the reliability of American alliances, and the implications for potential Pacific conflicts under Trump’s leadership. Despite these insights, Palmer notes China continues to advocate for a ceasefire.

Below is an edited excerpt of their conversation. For the full discussion, listen to Today, Explained on Apple Podcasts, Pandora, Spotify, or other podcast platforms.

Why China Is Studying America’s War in Iran

China has maintained a long-standing interest in US military strategies, tracing back to the First Gulf War. That conflict prompted Beijing to reassess its own military capabilities and acknowledge America’s technological and operational lead.

Current observations reveal two critical concerns for Chinese strategists:

• Munitions consumption: The speed at which the US is depleting its stockpile during operations in Iran.
• Alliance cohesion: The willingness of US partners to support America in contentious military engagements.

These factors directly inform China’s assessment of potential future conflicts in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in scenarios involving direct confrontation with the United States.

Iran-China Relations: A Pragmatic but Unlikely Alliance

Relations between Iran and China are characterized by deepening ties despite ideological contradictions. While China is a communist state and Iran has historically suppressed communist movements, the two nations share pragmatic interests:

• Commercial partnerships: Including exchange programs such as pilot training and medical education.
• Geopolitical alignment: Both oppose the current global order dominated by the United States.
• Mutual opposition to US influence: China views Iran as a fellow victim of the existing international system.

Notably, Iran maintains a medical school at the Beijing University of Chinese Medicine, a collaboration that underscores the depth of their relationship. Despite China’s persecution of Uyghur Muslims and Iran’s nominal commitment to Islamic solidarity, the partnership remains transactional rather than ideological.

Military Lessons China Is Extracting From the Iran Conflict

China’s primary focus is evaluating the operational and logistical capabilities demonstrated by the US military. Palmer highlights the most pressing concern:

“The main thing they’re looking at is really the question of production chains and the ability to replenish munitions, which seems to