How Zero-Sum Thinking Shapes U.S. Political Beliefs and Policy Views

A landmark study published in the American Economic Review may be one of the most consequential social science papers of recent years, yet it remains largely unknown outside academic circles. Titled "Zero-Sum Thinking and the Roots of US Political Differences," the research is authored by economists Sahil Chinoy, Nathan Nunn, Sandra Sequeira, and Stefanie Stantcheva.

Using a comprehensive survey of 20,400 U.S. residents, the study examines the origins and consequences of zero-sum thinking—the belief that one individual’s or group’s gains typically come at the expense of others. The findings reveal strong correlations between this mindset and political preferences, including support for government redistribution, race- and gender-based affirmative action, and stricter immigration policies.

Key Findings: How Zero-Sum Thinking Influences Policy Views

• Redistribution: Individuals with zero-sum beliefs are more likely to support government redistribution of wealth and resources.
• Affirmative Action: Zero-sum thinking is associated with stronger support for race- and gender-based affirmative action policies.
• Immigration: Those holding zero-sum views tend to favor more restrictive immigration policies.

Historical and Ancestral Factors Linked to Zero-Sum Thinking

The study traces zero-sum thinking back to both personal and ancestral experiences, identifying several key determinants:

• Upward Mobility: Experiences of intergenerational upward mobility are strongly negatively correlated with zero-sum thinking.
• Immigration: Having immigrant parents or grandparents, or living in areas with high immigration rates, also reduces zero-sum beliefs.
• Slavery and Forced Labor: A strong positive correlation exists between zero-sum thinking and having ancestors who experienced slavery or other forms of forced labor. Even living in historically enslaved regions—often tied to later segregation and discrimination—shows a significant impact.

Among Black Americans, the effects of historical slavery are partly attributed to post-abolition segregation and discrimination. However, the study notes that the influence of past enslavement extends beyond Black communities. For example, Jewish Americans whose ancestors were forced laborers during the Holocaust also exhibit higher levels of zero-sum thinking.

Zero-Sum Thinking Across Political Lines

The research highlights that zero-sum worldviews are not confined to a single political ideology. While slightly more prevalent among Republicans than Democrats, these beliefs cut across party and ideological boundaries. The authors emphasize that zero-sum thinking is a powerful predictor of attitudes on redistribution, affirmative action, and immigration—issues central to contemporary political debates.

Implications for Immigration Policy Debates

The study’s findings carry particular weight in today’s discussions on immigration. Some libertarians and free-market conservatives argue for immigration restrictions, claiming that increased immigration could burden welfare systems. However, the research suggests that such restrictions may be more closely tied to zero-sum thinking than to empirical economic concerns.

"Zero-sum assumptions are central to the dangerous worldviews of both right-wing nationalists and many left-wing socialists and 'wokists.'" — Commentary on the study

The authors warn that widespread political ignorance—long a focus of their work—can exacerbate the spread of zero-sum thinking, further polarizing political discourse.