Hyperliquid’s Prediction Markets Surge Past Rivals Kalshi and Polymarket with $6B Daily Volume

Hyperliquid has entered the prediction markets arena, directly challenging established platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The decentralized finance (DeFi) exchange, which processes $6 billion in daily derivatives volume, debuted its first outcome contracts over the weekend, drawing immediate attention.

Hyunsu Jung, CEO of Hyperion DeFi—a US publicly-traded company that holds Hyperliquid’s HYPE token—reported that Hyperliquid’s first Bitcoin outcome market generated roughly three times the volume of equivalent markets on Polymarket and Kalshi combined.

“This proves that having a shared liquidity layer is effective in converting users. Binary markets is an obvious next step in building the full financial stack on Hyperliquid, which is meaningfully dominating crypto perpetuals and in the first half of 2026 has demonstrated the possibilities of 24/7 real-world asset trading.”

The launch positions Hyperliquid as a direct competitor to Polymarket and Kalshi. According to a Bernstein analyst note shared with DL News on Monday, the timing is critical. Bernstein has expanded its digital assets research coverage to include prediction markets, alongside tokenization and stablecoins—a sign of Wall Street’s growing interest in the sector.

Institutional Interest Grows

Bernstein’s memo highlights how prediction market contracts offer macro-focused funds a cleaner hedge against event risk compared to traditional instruments. Unlike foreign exchange options or commodity exposures, which carry basis risk, binary contracts settle solely on predefined outcomes. For example, a contract like “Will the US impose tariffs above 25% on EU goods in 2026?” provides clear terms: premium, maximum loss, and payoff are known upfront.

Kalshi has already made strides in institutional adoption. Last week, it executed its first bespoke block trade, brokered by Greenlight Commodities, between a Houston-based environmental hedge fund and Jump Trading Group. The trade was tied to the clearing price at California’s May carbon allowance auction. Additionally, Clear Street, an institutional broker, partnered with Kalshi to become the first institutional futures commission merchant offering regulated clearing access to prediction markets for hedge funds.

Hyperliquid’s Institutional Credentials

Hyperliquid’s prediction product, HIP-4, inherits the platform’s institutional backing. Key milestones include:

• FalconX launched prime brokerage margin financing for Hyperliquid in February, enabling cross-venue margining across Binance, OKX, Bybit, and Deribit against a single collateral pool.
• Ripple Prime, which clears over $3 trillion annually, added Hyperliquid as its first DeFi venue in the same month.
• Anchorage Digital, the only federally chartered US crypto bank, supports HYPE custody and staking.

What’s Next for Hyperliquid?

Hyunsu Jung identifies volume and open interest growth as critical metrics to watch. HIP-4 launched with Bitcoin price outcomes but is expected to expand to HYPE and Ether contracts. The platform may also extend beyond its current 15-minute timeframes.

Combined monthly volumes across Polymarket and Kalshi reached nearly $24 billion in April, according to Bernstein data. Kalshi now holds a 62% market share, up from 55% in January, driven by its institutional dominance.