Republicans' Strategy to Secure House Majority Despite Popular Vote Deficit

Loser face. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Post-Election Strategy: Republicans' Path to House Control

On Tuesday, I wrote about how Republicans are using gerrymandering, court rulings, and liberal commitments to process to create an Electoral College-like system for the House. It’s working. The best estimate suggests that to secure a bare majority in the House, Democrats would need a national popular vote advantage of approximately +4 points.

This margin is not far from the advantage the Electoral College provides Republicans in presidential elections.

Wargaming a Republican House Majority Despite Democratic Wins

Over at The UnPopulist, Andy Craig outlines a scenario where Republicans could steal control of the House even if Democrats win the popular vote. The strategy involves:

• Objecting to the seating of members from majority-minority districts, claiming these districts were drawn unconstitutionally under the Callais ruling.
• Without these members seated, Republicans would hold a majority and could elect their own Speaker.
• The new Speaker could then refuse to seat any Democrats elected in special elections, as Speaker Mike Johnson did for seven weeks with Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva.

Craig describes this as a modified version of Donald Trump’s January 6th Electoral College gambit—legal, perhaps, but undeniably bold.

Sensible people will look at this scenario and say, ‘Don’t be a Panicrat.’ That could not possibly happen.

To which I reply: Are you out of the goddamn mind? We all saw January 6th. Everything is possible.

Why Democrats Should Not Panic—Yet

To panicked Democrats—yswidt?—I say this: In my heart, I am one of you. But no matter what Trump and Republicans do, you’re going to win.

That’s right. The seventh seal is breaking. Strap in for some weapons-grade JVL hopeium.