Trump’s China Policy Reversal: Why His Second Term Defies Expectations

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands as they depart following a bilateral meeting at Gimhae Air Base on October 30, 2025, in Busan, South Korea. | Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

Key Takeaways

• Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Xi Jinping is likely to be overshadowed by the ongoing conflict in Iran.
• US military resources have shifted from Asia to the Middle East, defying expectations of an "Asia-first" approach.
• The administration has avoided provoking China, a stark contrast to earlier criticisms of Middle Eastern wars.

From "Asia-First" to Middle East Focus

In recent months, US attention and military resources have been redirected from Asia to the Middle East, where the war has proven longer and more difficult than anticipated. At the same time, the administration has gone out of its way to avoid offending China. This reversal is the opposite of what many expected from an administration led by a president who frequently criticized past wars of choice in the Middle East and whose top officials favored an "Asia-first" orientation.

Three Foreign Policy Camps in Trump’s Second Term

President Donald Trump has never adhered to a strict foreign policy doctrine. However, key figures in his administration can be grouped into three broad camps:

• Primacists: Advocated for a traditional, assertive US global role.
• Restrainers: Sought to reduce US military commitments and avoid costly operations.
• Prioritizers (Asia-firsters): Favored scaling back involvement in the Middle East and Ukraine to focus on China’s growing military strength.

Expected vs. Reality: The Prioritizers’ Playbook Reversed

At the start of Trump’s second term, the prioritizers seemed the most likely to shape policy. This group included traditional Republican hawks like Secretary of State Marco Rubio and America Firsters like Vice President JD Vance. Defense scholar Elbridge Colby, whose 2021 book The Strategy of Denial is considered the prioritizers’ manifesto, was appointed as undersecretary of defense for policy.

After two decades of frustrating US military engagements in the Middle East, there was bipartisan consensus on the need to shift focus. Yet few anticipated an administration that would run the prioritizer playbook in reverse: quick to use military force abroad, entangled in another open-ended war in the Middle East, and diverting resources away from the Pacific while adopting a notably accommodating stance toward China.

Trump’s Beijing Summit: A Symbol of Policy Reversal

This surprising state of affairs will be on full display this week as Trump travels to Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping. The meeting, originally scheduled for March 2025, was postponed due to the prolonged conflict in Iran—an outcome the White House likely did not foresee. While a summit between the world’s two most powerful leaders might typically dominate global headlines, this gathering is unlikely to receive the same level of attention.