U.S. Adds 65,000 Jobs in April Amid Iran Conflict, Despite Economic Uncertainty

The Iran war has caused the biggest disruption of global oil supplies in history, sending average U.S. gasoline prices surging past $4.50 a gallon this week. Yet, the conflict hasn’t significantly damaged the American job market—at least not yet.

When the Labor Department releases its April hiring and unemployment report on Friday, forecasters expect it to show that U.S. companies, nonprofits, and government agencies added 65,000 jobs last month. This figure comes from a survey of economists by FactSet and marks a decline from the surprisingly strong 178,000 jobs added in March.

While 65,000 net new jobs may seem modest in ordinary times, these are not ordinary circumstances. Baby Boomer retirements and President Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown have reduced the number of job seekers, meaning the economy no longer needs to generate as many jobs to maintain stability.

Matthew Martin of Oxford Economics notes that the so-called break-even point—the number of new jobs required each month to prevent the unemployment rate from rising—is now near zero. The jobless rate is expected to remain at a low 4.3% in April, according to FactSet.

On February 28, the U.S. and Israel launched attacks that prompted Iran to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passes. The disruption has driven up energy prices and led many economists to downgrade their global and U.S. economic growth forecasts. However, this fallout has yet to materialize in the U.S. job market.

Payroll processor ADP reported on Wednesday that private employers added a solid 109,000 jobs in April—the fastest pace since January 2025. While ADP’s figure is not a reliable predictor of the Labor Department’s report, it signals strong hiring momentum. Additionally, on Tuesday, the Labor Department reported that gross hiring in March was stronger than at any point in over two years.

The economy is receiving a boost from large tax refund checks issued this spring, a result of Trump’s 2024 tax cut legislation. These refunds have allowed consumers to spend more freely, encouraging companies to hire in response to rising demand.

Job Market Recovery Shows Signs of Improvement After 2025 Slowdown

The job market is showing intermittent signs of recovery after a challenging 2025. Last year, employers added just 9,700 jobs per month—the fewest outside a recession since 2002. High interest rates and uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic policies had suppressed hiring.

Progress this year has been uneven: January saw 160,000 new jobs, followed by 178,000 in March, but February saw employers cut 133,000 jobs.

One industry has dominated U.S. hiring: Healthcare, driven by an aging American population, has added 360,000 jobs over the past year. In contrast, all other employers combined cut 120,000 jobs over the 12 months ending in March.

"The job market remains resilient despite geopolitical tensions and economic headwinds. The break-even point for job growth is now near zero, meaning even modest hiring can keep unemployment stable." — Matthew Martin, Oxford Economics