Global Coal Power Rise in 2026 Limited to 1.8% Despite Energy Crisis, Analysis Shows

The widely discussed “return to coal” amid the Iran war is proving far more limited than anticipated, with global coal power output expected to rise by no more than 1.8% in 2026. A new analysis by the energy thinktank Ember, shared exclusively with Carbon Brief, presents a “worst-case” scenario—meaning the actual increase could be even lower.

Separate data further indicates that, so far in 2026, there has been no measurable return to coal. While a handful of countries, including Japan, Pakistan, and the Philippines, have announced plans to boost coal use in response to disrupted gas supplies, the Ember analysis suggests these measures will result in at most a “small rise” in coal generation.

Experts consulted by Carbon Brief emphasize that the narrative of a coal comeback is misleading. They argue that any short-term increase in coal use is merely masking a longer-term structural decline. Instead, clean-energy projects are emerging as more attractive investments during the current fossil-fuel-driven energy crisis.

Why Some Countries Are Considering More Coal

The conflict following US-Israeli attacks on Iran has disrupted global gas supplies, particularly after Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint in the Persian Gulf. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) typically passes through this region, primarily supplying Asian nations. The blockage has reduced available gas and driven prices to levels well above pre-conflict rates.

With constrained gas supplies and elevated prices, at least eight countries in Asia and Europe have either announced plans to increase coal-fired electricity generation or delayed coal phase-out initiatives. These nations include:

• Japan
• South Korea
• Bangladesh
• Philippines
• Thailand
• Pakistan
• Germany
• Italy

Many of these countries are major coal consumers, and their policy shifts have sparked widespread media coverage and analysis about a potential “return to coal.” Some critics argue that such moves are “incompatible with climate imperatives”, while others have framed coal’s resurgence as a sign of its resilience.

This debate echoes the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, when many analysts predicted a surge in European coal use due to disrupted Russian gas supplies. However, despite a temporary spike in 2022, EU coal use has since returned to a “terminal decline” and reached a historic low in 2025.

No Evidence of a Coal Comeback in 2026

As of March 2026, available data shows no return to coal. An analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air found that global coal power generation remained flat in March, while gas-fired generation declined. This suggests that the anticipated shift from gas to coal has not materialized at scale.

“The big story isn’t about a coal comeback. Any increase in coal use is merely masking a longer-term structural decline.”

Experts argue that the current energy crisis is accelerating investments in clean energy rather than reviving coal. The structural decline of coal power in many countries, combined with slower global electricity demand growth, could mean that coal generation continues to fall in 2026.