Leaked Intel Reveals Trump’s Iran War Failed to Cripple Nuclear Program Despite $25B Cost

U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the war in Iran has done little to damage the country’s nuclear capabilities, despite nine weeks of conflict and at least $25 billion in expenditures.

The regional conflict has strained strategic alliances, disrupted global trade, and triggered an energy crisis due to the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. Thousands of lives have been lost in the process.

No Significant Impact on Iran’s Nuclear Timeline

Assessments of Tehran’s nuclear program remain largely unchanged from a year ago, when Donald Trump ordered strikes on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan—on June 22.

Prior to the June 22 attack, U.S. analysts estimated that Iran had the capacity to build a nuclear bomb within three to six months, according to three sources familiar with the matter who spoke with Reuters on Monday night.

After the strikes—internally referred to as Operation Midnight Hammer—U.S. analysts revised their estimate, suggesting the attack pushed Iran’s nuclear timeline back to nine months to a year. That assessment remains unchanged, according to Reuters’ unnamed sources.

Current Strategy Proves Ineffective

Since February 28, most U.S. and Israeli attacks have targeted conventional military sites in Iran. The stagnant nuclear timeline suggests this strategy has failed to diminish Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

To achieve that goal, analysts say, the destruction or removal of Iran’s remaining highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile would be necessary, Reuters reported.

Iran’s Growing Uranium Stockpile

In 2018, Iran lacked a single bomb’s worth of uranium, three years after former President Barack Obama brokered the Iran Nuclear Deal to limit the country’s uranium stockpile.

However, after Trump withdrew the U.S. from the pact and imposed severe economic sanctions, Iran’s stockpile grew to 11 tons of enriched uranium by 2025. The whereabouts of this stockpile remain largely unknown.

According to a 2025 assessment by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Iran’s total HEU stockpile could produce up to 10 nuclear bombs if fully enriched.

Trump’s Objectives vs. Reality

Trump has previously stated that his primary goal in the war was to eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities entirely. However, his administration has not consistently communicated progress to the public.

Following Operation Midnight Hammer, Trump and his team claimed Iran’s nuclear production was set back by multiple years. Yet, former National Counterterrorism Center Director Joe Kent resigned in March, citing his inability to support the war in good conscience.

“I could not in good conscience support the war in Iran because the country posed no imminent threat to our nation.”

— Joe Kent, former National Counterterrorism Center Director