Mediterranean Mussel Farming Faces Total Collapse by 2050 Due to Climate Change

Climate Change Threatens Mediterranean Shellfish Farming

Greenhouse gas emissions are driving atmospheric and ocean warming while increasing seawater acidity. One of the most pressing consequences of these changes is the projected decline in shellfish farming yields, including oysters and mussels—staples for coastal economies and food supplies worldwide.

New Study Reveals Alarming Projections for 2050

In a groundbreaking study published in Earth’s Future, researchers led by Pernet et al. present the first realistic projections for Mediterranean oyster and mussel farming yields in 2050, 2075, and 2100. Their findings indicate a dramatic drop in shellfish production by mid-century, with mussel farming potentially collapsing entirely by 2050.

Innovative Experimental Approach

Unlike prior studies that relied on idealized tank experiments, this research team developed a novel system to simulate real-world aquaculture conditions. They exposed oysters and mussels to fluctuating acidity, temperature, and nutrient levels by pumping in seawater from the Mediterranean Sea near Thau lagoon, France—a region critical to local shellfish farming.

The experiment involved 12 tanks: three exposed to present-day conditions and nine subjected to seawater warmed and acidified according to climate projections for 2050, 2075, and 2100 (three tanks per year).

Oysters Show Severe Decline Under Future Conditions

Under projected 2100 conditions, oyster survival rates dropped by 7% compared to present levels, while growth rates declined by 40%. These results suggest Mediterranean oyster farming yields could face severe reductions in the coming decades.

Mussels Face Near-Total Collapse by 2050

Mussels proved even more vulnerable. Their survival range is narrower than oysters’, and some Mediterranean waters already exceed their upper temperature tolerance during summer, leading to mass-mortality events. In the experiment:

• Under present conditions, mussel mortality was approximately 40%.
• Under predicted 2050 conditions, nearly all mussels died.

Call for Urgent Adaptation Strategies

The researchers emphasize the need for immediate action to safeguard Mediterranean shellfish farming. Proposed solutions include:

• Relocating mussel-farming operations to cooler open-sea waters.
• Developing cofarming with algae to enhance resilience to climate change.

"The findings underscore the urgent need for strategies to protect Mediterranean shellfish farming in the face of accelerating climate change."

— Pernet et al., Earth’s Future

Study Details and Citation

Study: Earth’s Future (DOI: 10.1029/2025EF005992)

Published: 2025

Citation: Stanley, S. (2026), Mediterranean mussel farming could collapse by 2050, Eos, 107, https://doi.org/10.1029/2026EO260121. Published on 17 April 2026.

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