Bitcoin Stuck Below $80K: Fed’s Powell Speech and Oil Prices Keep BTC Pressured

Bitcoin entered yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision already capped below a dense on-chain supply zone. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference provided little incentive for buyers to push through this resistance.

The Federal Reserve maintained its target range at 3.5%–3.75% and explicitly linked elevated inflation to higher global energy prices, citing Middle East tensions as a key source of economic uncertainty. Powell reinforced this view in his opening remarks, estimating that total PCE inflation ran at 3.5% through March, with core PCE at 3.2%. He warned that rising oil prices are poised to drive overall inflation higher in the near term.

The Fed’s decision was its most divided since 1992. Eight officials voted to hold rates steady, one dissenter advocated for a rate cut, and three policymakers—Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan—objected to retaining any easing bias in the statement. This internal split underscored the committee’s actual dovish posture while keeping the easing language intact. Three officials argued that the statement was already too accommodative.

For Bitcoin, the outcome is a macro environment where a dovish pivot has become harder to price. The March Summary of Economic Projections still projected a median federal funds rate of 3.4% by 2026, implying a single rate cut this year. However, futures markets assigned little probability to this scenario, with some traders even assigning a small chance of a rate hike over the next 12 months.

The Fed’s inflation challenge stems from an external energy shock that Powell noted the central bank cannot control. Brent crude averaged $103 per barrel in March, with the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasting a peak near $115 in Q2 2026, followed by a decline below $90 in Q4 2026.

Inflation is running hot through two separate channels: energy costs are pushing up PCE, while tariff effects continue to impact core goods prices. This dual pressure prevents the Fed from quickly dismissing the oil shock, as policymakers must first ensure higher energy costs are not fueling inflation expectations before justifying a rate cut. Powell indicated that near-term inflation expectations are already elevated.

Bitcoin currently sits below a heavy supply zone. The macro case for absorbing this supply has weakened in the near term.

Where Bitcoin Is Stuck

Glassnode’s latest report identifies Bitcoin’s key resistance at the True Market Mean, near $78,000. The short-term holder cost basis is around $79,000. Both levels converge into a supply zone between $78,000 and $80,000, a range BTC has already tested and rejected.

Glassnode describes this pattern as a classic bear-market rally structure: price rallies to the breakeven zone for recent buyers, those holders distribute into strength, and incoming demand fails to absorb the supply at that level. With spot BTC trading near $75,900, it remains below this critical resistance band.