Congressional Candidates Suspended and Fined for Betting on Their Own Elections on Kalshi

Three congressional candidates wagered on the outcome of their own elections on Kalshi, a prediction market platform, which announced Wednesday that it had fined and suspended the men from its platform for five years.

This marks the latest high-profile case of alleged insider trading on prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, which have faced bipartisan scrutiny from Congress and calls for stricter regulations.

Candidates Identified and Penalties Assessed

Kalshi’s disciplinary documents named the following candidates:

• Mark Moran, an independent running in Virginia’s U.S. Senate race;
• Ezekiel Enriquez, who ran in a Texas Republican primary for a U.S. House seat;
• Matt Klein, a Democratic state senator running for a U.S. House seat in Minnesota.

Klein and Enriquez each placed bets under $100 related to their own candidacies, Kalshi reported. Moran stated on social media that he “traded $100 on myself.”

Context of Political Prediction Markets

These relatively small bets follow earlier large wagers on prediction markets that drew attention. In January, an anonymous Polymarket user profited $400,000 on a bet that former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would soon leave office.

In March, after two U.S. senators introduced legislation threatening prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket announced new rules, including prohibitions on political candidates trading on their own campaigns.

Fines and Suspensions Imposed

Moran refused to reach a settlement with Kalshi and was fined the most—over $6,200—while Klein and Enriquez accepted agreements and face penalties of over $530 and $780, respectively. All three were suspended from Kalshi for five years.

Political Reactions to Penalties

Some lawmakers criticized the punishments as insufficient. U.S. Rep. Mike Levin, a California Democrat, criticized the penalties on social media, stating, “That’s not a punishment. That’s a parking ticket.”

Kalshi emphasized that the agreements were made with the company and not with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulator of prediction markets. The CFTC is chaired by Michael Selig, who has been viewed as supportive of the industry’s growth.

Defiant Response from Mark Moran

Rather than denying the allegations, Moran told The Associated Press on Wednesday that he placed the bets to highlight what he described as the undue influence of platforms like Kalshi on elections. He also said he had met with the company and requested that his name be included on its website.

Moran explained that he was fined more than the other candidates because he refused to sign a settlement requiring him to post a statement on X (formerly Twitter). He claimed the strategy succeeded.

“When I piss people off, when I upset people, and when I captivate their attention, that’s when they have to start listening.”

Klein also acknowledged Kalshi’s findings in a post on social media Wednesday. He revealed that the $50 wager he placed in October was his first time using a prediction market, and he described it as a learning experience.

“This was a mistake and I apologize,” Klein wrote. “The experience made it clear that the markets need more regulation.”

Klein is a cosponsor of a bill aimed at increasing transparency in prediction markets.