Scientists warned this week that a developing El Niño is likely to amplify heatwaves, droughts, and floods in 2024. However, they emphasized that the long-term warming caused by burning fossil fuels remains the main driver of climate extremes.
El Niño is the warm phase of a semi-regular temperature oscillation in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During this phase, massive amounts of heat stored in the ocean are released into the atmosphere, temporarily raising the average annual global surface temperature by as much as 0.3 degrees Fahrenheit.
In an online briefing this week, researchers noted that the consequences of a moderate or strong El Niño today are more damaging than those of similar events just a few decades ago. This is because the entire global climate system is now substantially warmer.
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