UK Car Industry Exceeds EV Sales Targets Despite Industry Claims of Shortfall

The UK car industry has long argued that consumer demand is too low to meet the government’s targets for zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales. Yet, official figures reveal a different reality: the industry has consistently surpassed these targets under the government’s ZEV mandate.

This discrepancy has emerged in a recurring pattern following the monthly release of new UK car sales data by the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT). Despite this, large sections of the media have repeatedly published articles incorrectly stating that car manufacturers are failing to meet their ZEV targets. Meanwhile, the industry continues to lobby for an urgent review of these targets, asserting that ‘natural demand remains well below the level required by the mandate.’

UK Car Market ‘Over-Complies’ with ZEV Targets

In 2021, the UK’s then Conservative government introduced the ZEV mandate, inspired by a similar scheme in California. The policy sets a rising annual target for the proportion of new car and van sales that must be zero-emissions vehicles. For cars, the targets began at 22% in 2024, with a gradual increase to 80% by 2030.

By November 2024, the SMMT warned that the industry was ‘likely to fall short,’ projecting that EVs would account for just 18.7% of sales. The organization cautioned that this shortfall could result in a £1.8 billion compliance bill—though manufacturers could avoid penalties by trading credits or borrowing allowances from future years.

However, official figures published in early 2026 revealed that the car market had ‘over-complied’ with the 2024 ZEV mandate. Despite EVs making up only 19.8% of new sales—a figure slightly higher than the industry’s November estimate—the industry avoided fines entirely.

How ‘Flexibilities’ Helped the Industry Surpass Targets

The industry’s success in exceeding targets was made possible by a series of ‘flexibilities’ built into the ZEV mandate. These adjustments, introduced after lobbying by carmakers, allow manufacturers to reduce their ZEV sales targets by selling lower-emission vehicles, such as hybrids or plug-in hybrids.

When accounting for these flexibilities, the UK car market met the equivalent of a 24.5% ZEV target in 2024. The surplus of 2.5% was then ‘banked’ for use in future years, as shown in the figure below.

Required (left) and achieved (right) share of ZEVs in total UK car sales in 2024 (%)

Source: Government data, 2026