Forbes Adds Prediction Game to Article on Louisiana Mass Shooting of 8 Children

In a controversial move, Forbes published an article about a Louisiana man who killed eight children—including seven of his own—across three locations in Shreveport on Sunday, January 31, 2021. The story included a ForbesPredict prediction box asking readers to forecast whether Congress would pass stricter gun safety legislation by December 31, 2026.

The article summarized reports from the Associated Press and The New York Times, noting that family members described the shooter, 31-year-old Shamar Elkins, as having mental health issues and expressing suicidal thoughts. Below this context, the prediction box posed the question:

"Congress WILL / WON’T pass new gun safety legislation before 31st December 2026?"

The interactive feature allowed users to select an outcome, with a green checkmark and red X pulsing to indicate choices. Sliding the cursor over each option altered the sentence structure dynamically.

ForbesPredict: Gamifying News Consumption

ForbesPredict launched in January 2021 as part of Forbes’ strategy to combat declining search engine traffic and increase user engagement. Unlike prediction markets such as Kalshi or Polymarket, ForbesPredict does not offer monetary rewards. Instead, users earn tokens that hold no cash value but provide status and gameplay advantages within the platform.

According to Nina Gould, Forbes’ Chief Innovation Officer, the initiative responds to the shift in how audiences access information amid AI advancements. "AI is fundamentally changing how people access information, and that shift is already starkly visible in publisher's traffic," Gould stated in a press release. "Our response isn’t to chase scale, but to deepen engagement. ForbesPredict gives our audience a reason to return, participate and invest their thinking—not just consume headlines."

How the Prediction System Works

New users who accessed the article without signing in were granted 800 tokens. To participate in the prediction, users spent 100 tokens to forecast whether Congress would pass new gun laws by 2026—a scenario ForbesPredict estimated had an 18% chance of occurring. For 10 additional tokens, users could purchase a "hint" revealing potential outcomes before making their prediction.

The next prediction prompt asked whether former President Donald Trump would pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before the end of his term. A 10-token hint revealed that users assigned a 61% probability to the outcome, citing Trump’s public statements about his pardon authority. Forbes also offered a daily login bonus of 800 tokens for registered users.

The gamification of news content has sparked debate, with critics questioning the appropriateness of integrating prediction games into articles covering tragic events such as mass shootings.