How Trump’s Midterm Primary Endorsements Are Reshaping the GOP Ahead of November

President Donald Trump is leveraging his dominance over the Republican Party to suppress primary challenges that could drain party resources and divide the GOP ahead of a high-stakes midterm election.

Why it matters: Republican strategists argue that if the party defies expectations and retains control of Congress this November, Trump’s aggressive approach to endorsing and opposing candidates will be a key factor in that outcome.

Trump’s Endorsement Strategy by the Numbers

Trump has set a historic precedent for presidential primary involvement:

• He endorsed 95% of the 217-member House GOP Conference, including 43 candidates running in the Cook Political Report’s 60 most competitive House races.
• He backed Republican candidates in nearly two-thirds of Senate races.

While Democrats remain favored to gain seats in November, their party is grappling with contentious and expensive primaries that risk weakening candidates ahead of the general election.

Behind the Scenes: Trump’s Hardball Tactics

Trump’s hands-on approach was evident last week when he pressured Kentucky Senate candidate Nate Morris to withdraw from the race. Morris, a friend of Donald Trump Jr. and previously endorsed by conservative activist Charlie Kirk (who died in 2022), was told Trump would instead back Rep. Andy Barr.

After Morris announced his withdrawal, Trump announced on social media that he would appoint Morris to an ambassadorship.

A similar scenario unfolded in March when Trump reversed his endorsement of Hope Scheppelman, who was challenging Colorado Rep. Jeff Hurd in a primary. Concluding Hurd had a stronger chance in the general election, Trump asked Scheppelman to drop out. She later joined the administration.

These moves have occasionally left lingering resentment. In 2023, Trump urged Michigan Rep. Bill Huizenga to abandon a Senate primary against former Rep. Mike Rogers, instead seeking re-election with Trump’s support. Huizenga complied but was reportedly unhappy with the decision.

Trump’s Early Primary Strategy: A Calculated Gamble

According to a person familiar with his thinking, Trump decided shortly after taking office in 2021 that he wanted to play an active role in Republican primaries. His priority was to endorse vulnerable incumbents early, believing delays would expose them to damaging primary challenges.

However, the strategy carried risks. By endorsing candidates just months into his term, Trump sacrificed a key source of leverage over lawmakers whose votes he needed to advance critical legislation.

What Republicans Are Saying

"The president and his political team deserve much more credit than they get for shaping this battlefield. Their early engagement allows our candidates in the toughest fights to focus on what matters: beating Democrats."

— Chris Winkelman, president of the conservative Congressional Leadership Fund, to Axios

The Counterarguments: Pushback from MAGA Supporters

Trump’s focus on endorsing candidates he views as most electable has drawn criticism from some conservative activists. After Trump backed Rep. Andy Barr in Kentucky, one MAGA supporter wrote on X: "This is why they say MAGA is dead. Everything MAGA opposes, Andy Barr is for."

Yet Trump has also shown restraint in certain races. Notably, he has avoided involvement in the Texas Senate primary, where Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton are competing.