Virginia Voters Approve New Map, Dealing Blow to Trump’s Redistricting Strategy

Last summer, Donald Trump pressured GOP-controlled states to redraw their congressional maps mid-decade, aiming to secure a dozen or more seats to counter a projected Democratic wave and retain House control in the midterms. Early successes in Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina followed. However, the redistricting arms race has not delivered the lopsided Republican gains the White House anticipated.

The approval by Virginia voters on Tuesday of a new congressional map—potentially adding up to four Democratic seats—demonstrates how Democrats have countered Trump’s redistricting strategy. Currently, parties are evenly matched in states that have redrawn maps since last summer. The new Virginia map further increases the likelihood that Republicans will lose the House in November, given Trump’s declining approval ratings and the Cook Political Report’s forecast that Republicans must win three-quarters of toss-up races to retain control, labeling Democrats as “substantial favorites.”

This outcome diverges sharply from Trump and his allies’ expectations. After securing favorable maps in Texas, Missouri, and North Carolina, Trump faced setbacks when Indiana Republicans refused to redraw their districts. Other GOP-led legislatures, including Kansas and Nebraska, also resisted. Ohio passed a compromise map that, while favoring Republicans, could have been far worse for Democrats. Meanwhile, courts in Utah struck down the state’s existing map, likely leading to a Democratic pickup. Missouri voters may also block the state’s new gerrymander in November, further aiding Democrats.

In California, Democrats achieved an unlikely ballot measure to counter the Texas gerrymander by redrawing the state’s maps. Virginia Democrats replicated this success despite a more complex process. Democrats had to regain control of the legislature and governorship last November to initiate redistricting. They then convinced voters in a state less blue than California to pass a constitutional amendment authorizing partisan gerrymandering—a stark contrast to Virginia’s 2019 vote, when voters approved a bipartisan commission to draw congressional maps.

The takeaway? Voters oppose gerrymandering, but they oppose Trump’s influence even more. However, the redistricting wars are not over.

Ongoing Battles and Future Implications

Florida plans to convene a special session next week to redraw its congressional map, potentially adding between two and five Republican seats. The Supreme Court may soon strike down a key section of the Voting Rights Act, which could shift several seats toward the GOP—though the timing of any decision may prevent most Southern states from redrawing maps before the midterms.