Western U.S. Faces Elevated Wildfire Risk This Summer, Warns NIFC

Above-Normal Wildfire Risk Forecast for Western U.S. This Summer

The National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) has issued a four-month outlook warning of above-normal significant wildland fire potential across much of the western and southern United States from May through August. The forecast, released on May 1, indicates that no region in the U.S. will experience below-average fire risk during this period.

"It’s not necessarily a foregone conclusion that we’re going to have a really busy season, but everything is pointing that way."

The NIFC, a coalition of wildland fire experts from eight federal agencies, bases its projections on long-term forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, current precipitation and drought conditions, and fuel assessments across regions.

Record-Breaking Acreage Already Burned

As of the latest update, 1,848,210 acres have burned nationwide—nearly double the 10-year annual average. This early-season activity underscores the heightened risk for the coming months.

Western U.S. Wildfire Outlook by Month

May

Above-average fire risk is concentrated in eastern Arizona and western New Mexico. This elevated risk is expected to diminish by August as the Southwest’s monsoon season begins.

June

Fire potential expands to include western Colorado and parts of the Pacific Northwest.

July and August

The risk intensifies across much of the Northwest, covering Utah, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Northern California.

Key Contributors to Elevated Fire Risk

Drought and Low Snowpack

Above-average spring temperatures and far-below-normal snowpack are major factors driving the increased risk in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Northern California.

As of May, many western river basins report a snow water equivalent of less than 50% of the 1991–2020 average. Some basins are already snow-free due to early melting from warm March temperatures.

"The snowpack being lower this time of year, and melting out, affects the soil moisture throughout the rest of the summer, which then affects the fuel moistures."

How the NIFC Forecast Is Developed

The NIFC’s monthly outlook integrates data from:

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center long-term forecasts
• Current precipitation and drought conditions
• Regional fuel assessments (grasses, brush, timber)

Significant wildland fires are defined as those requiring an NIFC response.

Regional Fire Risk Summary

• Southwest (May): Eastern Arizona, western New Mexico
• Rocky Mountains (June): Western Colorado
• Pacific Northwest (June–August): Washington, Oregon, Idaho
• Northern California (July–August): Elevated risk
• Southeast: Above-normal potential throughout the summer