11 Gas-Powered AI Data Centers Could Emit More CO2 Than Entire Nations

AI Data Centers’ Gas Power Emissions Could Outpace Entire Countries

Just eleven gas-powered data centers in the United States could emit more greenhouse gases than entire countries with populations of tens of millions, according to a Wired analysis. The magazine reviewed emissions estimates from gas power projects under construction to supply energy to these facilities.

Surge in Construction Driven by AI Demand

Construction of these large-scale data centers has accelerated to meet the growing energy needs of the AI industry. To expedite operations, many new data centers are adopting "behind-the-meter" gas power—a strategy that bypasses reliance on local power grids and avoids associated controversies, such as rising energy costs. Gas turbines can be deployed on-site almost immediately, providing a rapid solution to power demands.

However, this approach has led to a "crazy acceleration of emissions," warned Michael Thomas, founder of the clean energy firm Cleanview, which tracks data center gas permits. According to data from the nonprofit Global Energy Monitor, nearly 100 gigawatts of behind-the-meter gas power for data centers were in development at the start of 2027, compared to just 4 gigawatts at the start of 2024.

"It’s almost like we thought we were on the downside of the Industrial Revolution, retiring coal and gas, and now we have a new hump where we’re going to rise. That terrifies me in a lot of ways."

Project Matador: A Potential Emissions Giant

The largest contributor in Wired’s analysis is Project Matador, a proposed massive data center campus in the Texas panhandle. Earlier this year, the project secured a permit to generate 6 gigawatts of gas power. With projected annual CO2 emissions of over 40 million tons, this single facility could emit more greenhouse gases than the nation of Jordan.

Additionally, each of Elon Musk’s new data center campuses—Colossus and Colossus 2 in Tennessee—could individually emit more than the entire country of Iceland. Combined, the eleven facilities could release up to 129 million tons of greenhouse gases annually, exceeding the carbon footprint of Morocco, a country of 38 million people.

Estimates May Overstate Actual Emissions

There is a critical caveat to these projections: they are based on the maximum permitted emissions that gas power companies are requesting regulators to approve. In practice, actual emissions are likely to be lower.

Alex Schott, director of communications at Williams Companies—an oil and gas firm building three behind-the-meter power plants for Meta—explained to Wired:

"Permitted emission numbers represent a theoretical, conservative scenario, not the actual projected emissions. The actual emissions could be potentially two-thirds less than what’s on paper."

There is also uncertainty about whether all the gas facilities analyzed by Wired will be completed. For example, the future of Project Matador remains uncertain as the company behind it, Fermi, appears to be struggling financially. However, even if actual emissions are only half of the permitted figures, the data centers would still produce more greenhouse gases than many nations.