Hagerty Market Rating Drops as Inflation Pressures Collector Car Market

The Hagerty Market Rating tracks the current status of the collector car market, measuring activity, directional momentum, and underlying strength. Expressed as a closed 0-100 score with an open-ended index (similar to the DJIA or NASDAQ Composite), it provides a snapshot of market health. For details on the calculation, read here.

Inflation Drives Market Rating Decline

In June 2024, the broader economy significantly impacted the collector car market. Monthly inflation reached 0.9%—the highest single-month reading since summer 2022—pushing the Hagerty Market Rating down by 0.11 points to 58.9.

For the past 15 months, the Market Rating has hovered between 58 and 61, lingering in the upper range of the "flat market" (50–60) territory. However, the Hagerty Market Index, an open-ended, stock-market-style version of the Market Rating, rose by 0.91 points this month—the largest single-month increase in over three years.

The divergence stems from how the Market Rating penalizes high inflation more severely than the Market Index, which tracks raw numbers. Inflation adjustments in the Market Rating evaluate sale prices, meaning a sudden inflation spike makes already-soft market performance appear worse.

Auction and Private Sales Paint a Weak Picture

The Auction Median Sale Price fell another 0.71 points to a record low of $14.67 (adjusted for inflation). While nominal prices rose slightly from $26,513 to $26,565—a 0.2% increase—this growth was overshadowed by 0.9% inflation. The metric measures whether typical auction cars keep pace with the dollar’s buying power, and the recent decline extends a troubling trend.

Conversely, the Count of Cars climbed by 1.16 points to its best reading since December 2023, lifting the combined Auction Activity metric to 54.82—a 0.22-point increase. More cars are selling, but they’re fetching lower real-term prices.

Private sales activity tells an even weaker story. Private Sales Activity dropped 1.2 points to 63.7—the lowest reading since summer 2021. Collectors trading among themselves are doing so at lower prices, with only 35.2% of sales exceeding insured value—the second-lowest ratio in over four years. Since private transactions dominate the market, this persistent softness suggests broad-based weakness.

Top-Tier Market Holds Steady Amid Broader Decline

Earlier this month, the Hagerty Price Guide update revealed mixed trends across vehicle tiers. The high-end supercar segment continues to outperform, with values for many top-tier models doubling in the last few months. This lifted the Average Condition #3 Value by 1.03%, outpacing inflation.