Over the past four days, bettors on the prediction platform Polymarket have wagered nearly $3 million on whether a hantavirus pandemic will emerge in 2024.
A cluster of cases of a particularly deadly strain of the virus erupted on a cruise ship last month, resulting in three deaths out of eight suspected cases linked to the vessel. Though the news has heightened concerns, the World Health Organization (WHO) currently classifies the risk of a full-blown pandemic as low.
Polymarket users are placing significant bets on multiple hantavirus-related propositions, including:
- Whether a vaccine will be developed for the virus this year
- Whether officials will attribute the cruise ship outbreak to a “lab leak”
Polymarket declined to comment on hantavirus betting.
“I want to be unequivocal here. This is not the start of a Covid pandemic.”
— Maria Van Kerkhove, WHO Director of Epidemic and Pandemic Management
“This is not Covid, this is not influenza. It spreads very, very differently.”
Infectious disease experts note that this strain of hantavirus requires close contact to spread between people, and infected individuals are only contagious for about one day. These factors shape both public health responses and online gambling strategies.
Online gambling has surged since the U.S. Supreme Court legalized sports betting in 2018, with the Covid-19 pandemic further accelerating the trend. In 2020, sports betting revenues increased by 69% compared to the previous year, despite the cancellation of most sporting events. Bettors also turned to other markets, including predictions about Covid-19 deaths—a topic wagered on as early as April 2020, when such bets were still illegal due to stricter regulations on prediction markets.
A 2024 court ruling removed restrictions on these platforms, allowing users on mega-sites like Polymarket and Kalshi to bet on nearly any topic, including public health crises.
“Anybody who’s betting on a viral spread, I’m going to…guess that they have an addiction problem when it comes to gambling.”
— John W. Ayers, Public Health Professor at University of California, San Diego
Public health experts have long warned about rising gambling addiction rates, though exact figures remain difficult to determine. A study led by Ayers, published last year, found that Google searches for gambling addiction help increased by 23% nationwide following the legalization of sports betting. Other research estimates that about 10% of men aged 18 to 30 have a problematic relationship with gambling.
Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket thrive on user engagement, expanding the range of niche bets available. Since gaining traction during the Covid-19 pandemic, prediction markets have grown exponentially, offering new opportunities—and concerns—for bettors and public health observers alike.
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