Supreme Court's Final Decisions This Term: Key Cases on Democracy and Trump's Power

The U.S. Supreme Court is in its final stretch before the justices begin their summer recess, following the last oral arguments of the 2023-2024 term on Wednesday, May 15, 2024. With the Court typically concluding its business by early July, the remaining task for the justices is to finalize opinions, concurrences, and dissents in the pending cases.

Two overarching themes dominate the Court’s remaining docket: democracy and the power of President Donald Trump. The justices have already tackled a pivotal case that could reshape Black political representation in Southern states, while additional election-related and executive authority cases await resolution.

Election Cases Loom Large in Final Rulings

The Court recently issued a landmark decision in Louisiana v. Callais, a case that significantly weakens a key provision of the Voting Rights Act. The ruling neutralizes requirements for states to create additional majority-Black or majority-Latino electoral districts, a move expected to shift political power in several Southern states.

Analysts predict the decision will result in between six and a dozen seats currently held by Democratic lawmakers of color being redrawn to favor white Republican candidates when states finalize their electoral maps.

The Court is also set to rule on National Republican Senatorial Committee (“NRSC”) v. FEC, a case where the Republican Party seeks to eliminate restrictions on how much money party organizations—such as the Democratic National Committee (DNC) and Republican National Committee (RNC)—can spend in coordination with individual candidates. If the GOP prevails, wealthy donors could funnel significantly larger sums into elections, amplifying their influence over races nationwide.

The Court’s Republican majority has already demonstrated a willingness to reshape U.S. campaign finance laws, signaling a potential shift in how elections are funded and contested.

Trump’s Executive Power Under Scrutiny

Several pending cases focus on expanding the authority of the presidency, particularly under Trump’s administration. Among these is the legal theory of the “unitary executive”, which posits that the president holds near-unrestricted power to dismiss leaders of federal agencies. This theory has been a longstanding priority for the Court’s conservative bloc.

However, the justices are also poised to reject one of Trump’s most contentious claims: that he possesses the power to strip citizenship from Americans born in the United States. Legal experts suggest this case is unlikely to succeed, given the constitutional protections afforded to birthright citizenship.

Culture War Issues: Guns and LGBTQ Rights

The Court’s remaining docket also includes two highly anticipated decisions on perennial culture war battles: gun rights and transgender student athletes.

Gun advocates anticipate favorable rulings in two upcoming cases, where the Court is expected to adopt an expansive interpretation of the Second Amendment. These decisions could further broaden gun rights across the country.

In contrast, advocates for transgender rights warn that the Court is likely to rule against transgender student athletes, potentially limiting their participation in school sports. The outcome could set a precedent for future cases involving LGBTQ+ rights in education and athletics.

The Supreme Court’s final decisions this term will have far-reaching implications for American democracy, executive authority, and social policies. As the justices prepare to adjourn for the summer, the nation awaits their rulings with anticipation.