How GOP and Democrats Are Reshaping House Seats Through Gerrymandering Before Midterms

Six months before the midterms, seats in the House of Representatives are already, in effect, changing hands—not through primaries or special elections, but through partisan redistricting.

Republicans initiated the latest round of gerrymandering last year, securing five seats in Texas, one in Missouri, and another in North Carolina. Democrats retaliated by flipping five districts in California in November and four more in Virginia last week. This week, the GOP struck back, targeting four additional seats in Florida. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court’s ruling removed previous restrictions on factoring race into congressional maps, potentially allowing redistricting in seven states before the 2024 election. Even if only one or two states act—Louisiana’s governor announced on Wednesday that he would—the GOP stands to benefit.

The rapid shifts and justifications from both parties have created a dizzying cycle of political maneuvers. Politicians seamlessly pivot from defending their own gerrymanders to condemning the opposition’s, all while maintaining a consistent lack of shame over their inconsistencies.

Gerrymandering: A Creative—and Controversial—Process

Gerrymandering has long been a creative exercise in map-drawing. By analyzing voter data, politicians draw district lines to concentrate the opposing party’s voters into a few districts while spreading their own voters to secure majorities in the remaining ones. The resulting shapes, such as Texas’s 35th district, New York’s 24th, and Illinois’s 13th, are often described as artistic masterpieces.

Trump’s Mid-Decade Redistricting Innovation

Last year, Donald Trump introduced a new tactic: mid-decade redistricting. Traditionally, redistricting occurs at the start of each decade following the census and reapportionment process. However, Trump disregarded this norm, pressuring Republicans in Texas and other red states to redraw their maps to gain additional seats for the GOP. In response, Democrats in blue states pursued similar measures through ballot initiatives.

Trump’s motivation was clear: with Republican control of the Texas legislature and governorship, he saw an opportunity. “We have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats,” he told CNBC in August 2023.

“We have an opportunity in Texas to pick up five seats.” — Donald Trump, August 2023

Yet, Trump’s justification for gerrymandering relied on a flawed premise. He argued that because he won Texas with 56% of the vote in 2024, Republicans were entitled to five additional seats. However, the math disproves this claim. Under the previous Texas map, Republicans held 25 of the state’s 38 seats (66%). The new gerrymander is expected to give them 30 seats (79%), meaning Trump’s 56% vote share would translate to nearly 80% of the seats—a clear imbalance.

When Virginia struck back last week,