Why the 'Ukraine Is Doomed' Narrative Failed: A Reality Check on 2024-2025 Predictions

In 2024, Republicans who were growing skeptical of U.S. support for Ukraine advanced multiple arguments for cutting aid to the embattled democracy. These ranged from claims of widespread corruption in aid distribution to warnings that aiding Ukraine risked sparking World War III, or that domestic issues in the U.S. should take priority. While each argument had flaws, none were as decisively disproven as the claim—championed by Senator JD Vance and later echoed by President Donald Trump—that Ukraine was destined to lose, rendering American assistance a futile endeavor.

Vance’s Argument: ‘The Math on Ukraine Doesn’t Add Up’

JD Vance became the leading voice of this narrative in July 2024 with an op-ed in The New York Times titled “The Math on Ukraine Doesn’t Add Up.” His central claim was straightforward: Ukraine lacked the manpower to sustain its forces, even under extreme conscription policies, and lacked the materiel to match what the U.S. could provide. Therefore, he argued, defeat was inevitable, and U.S. policy—whether in Congress or the White House—should reflect this reality.

“Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies. And it needs more materiel than the United States can provide. This reality must inform any future Ukraine policy, from further congressional aid to the diplomatic course set by the president.”
— JD Vance, The New York Times, July 2024

Trump’s February 2025 Remarks to Zelensky

President Trump echoed Vance’s argument in a contentious February 28, 2025 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office. Trump told Zelensky, “You’re, right now, not in a very good position. You’ve allowed yourself to be in a very bad position. You don’t have the cards right now.”

Putin’s Narrative War: Why the ‘Inevitable Defeat’ Claim Persists

Despite the flawed logic, the Russian government has invested heavily in promoting the idea that Ukraine’s defeat is unavoidable. According to the Institute for the Study of War, “Russian President Vladimir Putin has worked hard to convince the world that Ukraine’s defeat is inevitable when it is not.” Putin’s greatest success, the report notes, has not been on the battlefield but in shaping global narratives.

As recently as December 2024, Trump reiterated this claim, stating that Russia held the “upper hand” in Ukraine and asserting, “At some point, size will win.” Yet by mid-2025, that assertion no longer holds true.

Putin’s Victory Day Remarks: A Shift in Tone or Strategy?

During Russia’s annual Victory Day celebrations on May 9, 2025, marking the end of World War II in Europe, Putin suggested that the war in Ukraine “may be coming to an end.” While his exact intent remains ambiguous, the statement contradicts the earlier narrative of an inevitable Russian victory promoted by Vance, Trump, and others.

Revisiting Vance’s Flawed Assumptions

When Vance published his New York Times op-ed in 2024, he based his argument on the cost and availability of U.S. weapons systems, particularly focusing on outdated or surplus equipment such as 155-millimeter artillery shells. However, even at the time of his writing, Ukraine was rapidly adapting its defense strategy, integrating more advanced systems and leveraging international partnerships to sustain its war effort.

By early 2025, Ukraine had demonstrated resilience through tactical innovations, international support, and territorial gains that defied Vance’s predictions. The idea that Ukraine was doomed to lose has since been thoroughly discredited as the conflict entered a new phase with Ukraine maintaining strategic momentum.