2026 NBA Draft Lottery Odds Finalized Ahead of May 10 Draw
The 2026 NBA Draft lottery odds have been finalized, setting the stage for the May 10 draw that will determine the order of the top picks. The Washington Wizards, Utah Jazz, and Indiana Pacers lead the pack with a 14% chance at securing the No. 1 overall pick. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings each hold an 11.5% chance, while the Memphis Grizzlies follow with a 9% chance.
The Atlanta Hawks have a 6.8% chance at the top pick, thanks to a trade with the New Orleans Pelicans, and an additional 3% chance via swap rights with the Milwaukee Bucks. The Dallas Mavericks (6.7%), Chicago Bulls (4.5%), and Golden State Warriors (2%) round out the top contenders for the No. 1 selection.
Lower odds include the Oklahoma City Thunder (1.5%), Miami Heat (1%), and Charlotte Hornets (0.5%). The lottery will determine the fate of a draft class already impacted by NIL decisions, with several projected first-round talents opting to return to school.
Key Prospects Depart, Leaving Draft Class Still Packed with Talent
Several top prospects have withdrawn from the 2026 NBA Draft, including UConn’s Braylon Mullins, Duke’s Patrick Ngongba, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas, and Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou. Yessoufou remains the only player who has left open the possibility of entering the draft later.
Despite these departures, the draft class remains deep, with multiple franchise-changing players expected to be available in the top four. Landing a top-four pick could secure a future star for any lottery team.
Latest 2026 NBA Mock Draft: Updated After NCAA Entry Deadline
Using the finalized lottery standings, here’s the latest 2026 NBA mock draft:
| Pick | Team | Player | Position | School | Age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Wizards | AJ Dybantsa | Wing | BYU | Freshman |
| 2 | Indiana Pacers | Darryn Peterson | Guard | Kansas | Freshman |
| 3 | Brooklyn Nets | Cameron Boozer | Forward | Duke | Freshman |
| 4 | Utah Jazz | Caleb Wilson | Forward | North Carolina | Freshman |
| 5 | Sacramento Kings | Darius Acuff | Guard | Arkansas | Freshman |
| 6 | Memphis Grizzlies | Keaton Wagler | Guard | Illinois | Freshman |
| 7 | Atlanta Hawks (via Pelicans) | Kingston Flemings | Guard | Houston | Freshman |
| 8 | Dallas Mavericks | Mikel Brown Jr. | Guard | Louisville | Freshman |
| 9 | Chicago Bulls | Aday Mara | Center | Michigan | Junior |
| 10 | Milwaukee Bucks | Brayden Burries | Guard | Arizona | Freshman |
| 11 | Golden State Warriors | Yaxel Lendeborg | Forward | Michigan | Senior |
| 12 | Oklahoma City Thunder (via Clippers) | Nate Ament | Wing | Tennessee | Freshman |
| 13 | Miami Heat | Karim Lopez | Forward | NZ Breakers | Born 2007 |
| 14 | Charlotte Hornets | Jayden Quaintance | Center/Forward | Kentucky | Sophomore |
| 15 | Chicago Bulls | Morez Johnson | Center/Forward | Michigan | Sophomore |
| 16 | Memphis Grizzlies | Dailyn Swain | Wing | Texas | Junior |
| 17 | Oklahoma City Thunder (via 76ers) | Hannes Steinbach | Forward/Center | Washington | Freshman |
| 18 | Charlotte Hornets (via Magic) | Cameron Carr | Wing | Baylor | Junior |
| 19 | Toronto Raptors | Labaron Philon | Guard | Alabama | Sophomore |
| 20 | San Antonio Spurs (via Hawks) | Chris Cenac | Center | Houston | Freshman |
| 21 | Detroit Pistons (via Wolves) | Bennett Stirtz | Guard | Iowa | Senior |
| 22 | Philadelphia 76ers (via Rockets) | Allen Graves | Forward | Santa Clara | Freshman |
| 23 | Atlanta Hawks (via Cavs) | Joshua Jefferson | Forward | Iowa State | Senior |
| 24 | New York Knicks | Isaiah Evans | Guard | Duke | Sophomore |
| 25 | Los Angeles Lakers | Henri Veesaar | Center | North Carolina | Junior |
| 26 | Denver Nuggets | Koa Peat | Forward | Arizona | Freshman |
| 27 | Boston Celtics | Tyler Tanner | Guard | Vanderbilt | Sophomore |
| 28 | Minnesota Timberwolves (via Pistons) | Meleek Thomas | Guard | Arkansas | Freshman |
| 29 | Cleveland Cavaliers (via Spurs) | Christian Anderson | Guard | Texas Tech | Sophomore |
| 30 | Dallas Mavericks (via Thunder) | Isaiah Evans | Guard | Duke | Sophomore |
Top Themes to Watch on Lottery Night
The 2026 NBA Draft is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory, with teams clamoring for a top-four pick. The strength of this draft class means that even landing outside the top four could still yield a franchise-altering player.
As the lottery odds are finalized and the May 10 draw approaches, all eyes will be on which teams secure the coveted top picks and how the remaining talent is distributed throughout the first round.
"Just landing in the top-4 should get the job done." — NBA Draft Analyst
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