Crypto Industry Warns of 'Slow, Costly' Consequences if Clarity Act Fails to Pass

The crypto industry is intensifying its lobbying efforts to secure passage of the Clarity Act in the coming weeks, urging the Senate Banking Committee to act "as soon as practicable." The push comes as legal experts and market participants grow increasingly skeptical about the bill’s chances of success before the end of the year.

Industry insiders estimate the bill has a 50% chance of passing by December. However, sentiment on the Polymarket prediction platform is even more pessimistic, with only 45% of users betting on its passage this year—a figure that dropped by 19% on Wednesday.

“We hope this letter helps move market structure legislation from discussion to action in the Senate Banking Committee, with a clear path to markup,” said Lindsay Fraser, Chief Policy Officer at the Blockchain Association. “From there, the objective is straightforward: advance a durable bipartisan framework through Congress and to the President’s desk.”

Legal experts have previously warned that if the bill does not reach the Senate floor by May, its chances of passing in 2024 could vanish entirely. Yet, despite the high stakes, some believe the legislation still has a fighting chance.

Stablecoin Disputes and Legislative Hurdles

The lobbying groups Crypto Council for Innovation and the Blockchain Association emphasized in their letter to Senators the critical importance of the moment for the industry.

Legal experts suggest that lawmakers retain some flexibility, even as time grows short. Yuliya Barabash, founder and managing partner at SBSB Fintech Lawyers, told DL News that a Senate committee hearing in May could keep the bill viable—provided it secures a final vote in the full Senate by July. However, she added that the Senate Banking Committee is “unlikely” to debate the bill in April.

Earlier this week, Senator Thom Tillis reportedly supported a postponement until May, citing the need for additional time to broker a compromise between banks and crypto firms.

Future-Proofing the Crypto Sector

The Clarity Act aims to codify existing crypto-related guidelines into U.S. law, offering a safeguard against potential crackdowns by future administrations skeptical of digital assets. Advocates argue that without this legislation, the sector risks prolonged regulatory uncertainty.

“If the bill does not pass this year, the next phase will likely be a combination of narrower interim measures, continued agency enforcement, court-driven precedent, and renewed legislative attempts after the midterms,” said Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at Brickken.

“But that’s the slower and more expensive route. Clear statutory rules remain the most efficient path—both for markets and regulators.”

Political Distractions Delay Progress

Fabrega noted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is diverting political attention and resources away from the bill. “The legislative bottleneck is less about opposition to the bill itself and more about competing national priorities,” she explained.

“Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran, naturally consume political capital, floor time, and media attention,” Fabrega added. “When that happens, even strategically important economic legislation can be delayed if it is not treated as urgent.”

The crypto industry’s urgency contrasts with the current legislative slowdown, leaving the fate of the Clarity Act hanging in the balance as the clock ticks.