JPMorgan Predicts $30B Bitcoin Buying Spree by 2026, Reshaping BTC Demand Dynamics

On May 7, a JPMorgan client note projected that Strategy Corp, led by Michael Saylor, could acquire approximately $30 billion in Bitcoin by 2026, assuming the company maintains its current purchasing pace. This estimate places Strategy alongside spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and miner supply as a key structural component of Bitcoin's demand architecture.

Strategy currently holds 818,869 BTC, acquired for $61.86 billion at an average cost of $75,540 per BTC. The company retains significant capital-raising capacity, with $26.35 billion in MSTR stock issuance and $19.46 billion in STRC preferred-stock capacity still available. This runway supports the projected $30 billion annual Bitcoin purchases.

JPMorgan's analysis underscores Strategy's dual role in Bitcoin's market dynamics. The same capital structure that could establish a price floor also concentrates Bitcoin's marginal demand within a single entity's access to equity and preferred stock markets.

Projected Purchases and Market Impact

At a $30 billion annual pace, Strategy's 2026 Bitcoin acquisitions would absorb roughly 2.3 times Bitcoin's post-halving annual new issuance of 164,250 BTC. This aggressive buying strategy is part of Strategy's flywheel mechanism, which involves raising capital in public markets, converting it into Bitcoin, and using BTC-per-share growth to attract further investor demand. This cycle enables additional issuance and more purchases.

As of May 3, Strategy had raised $11.68 billion year-to-date, with STRC contributing $5.58 billion. This represents an 189% year-to-date increase, scaling to $8.5 billion over nine months and pushing preferred equity outstanding above $13.5 billion.

STRC's Role in Bitcoin Accumulation

Strategy designed STRC to trade near its $100 par value by adjusting the monthly dividend rate. This mechanism keeps investor demand calibrated around par and maintains a consistent at-the-money (ATM) issuance window. When STRC trades at or above par, Strategy sells additional shares and uses the proceeds to purchase Bitcoin, effectively converting yield demand into Bitcoin demand.

The flywheel effect converts $11.68 billion in investor demand for MSTR and STRC into recurring Bitcoin purchases, provided STRC trades near its $100 par value. According to K33 Research, STRC-linked purchases grew from 4,467 BTC in January to 22,131 in March and 46,872 in April.

At an annualized $30 billion, this buying activity would absorb approximately 378,000 BTC, roughly 2.3 times Bitcoin's post-halving daily issuance of 450 BTC, sustained over a full year.

Comparison to Spot Bitcoin ETFs

US-traded spot Bitcoin ETFs hold approximately 1.33 million BTC since their launch. A $30 billion Strategy purchase in a single year would equal roughly 51% of all cumulative spot ETF net inflows of $59.18 billion. Strategy's current holdings of 818,869 BTC already represent about 62% of US spot ETF holdings, positioning it as a parallel demand channel alongside ETFs.

Systematic Accumulation and Market Influence

Strategy systematically buys dips, as its $75,540 average cost remains roughly 5.1% below the current Bitcoin price of $79,373, demonstrating accumulation through market volatility. The company's remaining $45.81 billion in combined MSTR and STRC issuance capacity provides substantial runway for sustained purchases.

At a rate of 1,036 BTC per day, Strategy would consistently absorb more than twice Bitcoin's daily new supply, gradually reducing the available float throughout the year. In April, when STRC traded at or above $100, Strategy executed 46,872 BTC of STRC-linked purchases amid mixed ETF flows, providing critical demand precisely when the diversified institutional channel was underperforming.

The projections come as Citi maintains a bullish 12-month outlook for Bitcoin, further emphasizing the growing institutional interest in the asset class.